Posts by Rod David
Still molehills.
Choppy ranging persists through noon hour.
Testing the morning”s 2095.50 bias-up signal at 10:30 held, instead of invalidating the no-bias environment. Failing to hold 2093.00 targeted a pullback that attacked the 2086.50 bias-down signal to within 3 ticks.
Its reaction up to almost 2093.00 has been retraced to a fresh low that is actually piercing under 2086.50.
But the afternoon”s bias-down signal is deeper now at 2084.50. It doesn”t require being tested, let alone triggered. Today”s session hasn”t formed any predictive pattern that might otherwise indicate some objective beyond the range. So, there”s also no requirement to bounce.
Triggering the 2084.50 bias-down signal would be credible for probing under yesterday”s lows, probably down to 2077.00. Having originated from strength, the visit would likely recover quickly. Testing either of these levels would allow a buy signal to be considered. Meanwhile, no buy signal will be considered under 2091.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 5 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Ahead of Friday”s payrolls data, several private industry jobs reports are published. ADP”s is controversial, but the market”s reaction does offer insight into its thinking. The reaction should also be repeated for Wednesday”s post-open PMI and ISM reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.50 | 2094.75 |
| …would target | 2105.75 | 2099.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2084.50 |
| …would target | 2084.50 | 2077.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Wait problems.
Late bias signal test reinforces its resistance.
Recovering from the fresh overnight low at 2084.25 up to 2092.00 was extended to 2093.75 through the open”s first several minutes. Its reaction down to 2088.00 was recovered entirely, but no higher before dipping back to 2090.25.
That”s a lot of swings, but its relatively narrow range doesn”t generate a lot of centrifugal force. A fresh high barely probed 1 point above 2093.75 before reacting down back down to 2091.50. The 2095.50 bias-up signal wasn”t touched in time to invoke the grace period, let alone trigger.
Another swing managed to pierce the bias-up signal by 3 ticks. Exceeding it at 10:30 would have invalidated whatever was signaled at 10:15. But it was still being overlapped. This is a no-bias environment.
So, the 2095.50 bias-up signal should define the range”s upper-end. Probing above it should be retraced, probably down to at least 2094.00 where no-bias was signaled. So long as 2093.00 isn”t broken to reverse momentum down, rallying after the bias environment lapses would still be credible.
Downdraft averted? The earlier attack
Downdraft averted? The earlier attack on 2084 has recovered pre-open, back up to yesterday”s 2091 close. Extending higher post-open has little excuse to delay, other than a blip-down to 2091 or to attack 2088. Any lower, any later, for any longer, and the morning”s pattern becomes more likely to visit 2077 next. Details and other markets were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkhbsz