Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 30 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: GDP is high-profile, but has surprisingly little track record of influencing price action. Jobless Claims is somewhat similar.
*GDP
8:30 AM ET
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.25 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.25 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2092.75 | 2085.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Late buyers again.
Is another lower bias objective being rejected?
The open didn”t gap up above yesterday”s highs. Its early test of the 2091.50 bias-up signal was retraced down to 2087.25 in the first of several swings around yesterday”s 2089.00 highs. Bias-up didn”t trigger at 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2080.50 bias–down signal.
And, yet…
Probing fresh highs up to 2092.75 could have invalidated the no-bias. But too deep of a retracement was still overlapping or under the 2091.50 bias-up signal at 10:30. No-bias was not invalidated.
And, yet…
That pullback resolved up to within 1 tick of the 2096.50 bias-up target. You know, the 2096.50 bias-up target that isn”t in-play. It is nevertheless resistance. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above it would invalidate any lower objective based on not having triggered.
This is a lot of late buying pressure, excessive optimism — which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective — just ahead of an FOMC policy statement. The meeting isn”t expected to hike rates, which this price action risks discounting too much to maintain.
Perhaps the enthusiasm will trigger a blow-off to new highs, anyway. But I would rather buy that leg on a pullback to support, if not on a pullback under overnight lows, instead of at resistance being met by excessive optimism.
Earlier I had described the
Earlier I had described the shallow overnight probes as “cautious optimism.” Since then, the consolidation under 2093 tried probing higher, only to be swatted back down to yesterday”s 2087 close. Now, THAT”s cautious optimism. Not so optimistic that it has expended all available buying pressure, or that rejecting it should fall very far. And also not so cautious that momentum is reversing down — not yet. But there isn”t much room for a deeper pullback without it becoming a new downleg, at least some constructive pessimism ahead of this afternoon”s FOMC statement. Details and other markets coverage are in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjzcfvy
The First Trade… Cautious optimism.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning”s swing warned that powerful upside sponsorship was arriving. Exiting the morning”s bias environment above its 2072.25 opening high rejected the no-bias environment. Its offsetting test of the 2060.00 bias-down signal was attacked only so much as to fill the gap back to Monday”s 2061.50 cash session close. The rejection”s 2080.50 target was fulfilled on the way to renewing the afternoon”s bias-up targeting 2088.00. The session”s entire last timing window hovered there.
Overnight action”s new info…
Tuesday afternoon”s 2085.00-2089.00 ranging finally began resolving upward just ahead of Europe”s opens. The choppy gains have been consolidating up to 2093.00, centered around the initial surge”s peak at this morning”s 2091.50 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Gapping up without reversing down through the open would get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher through the morning, but wouldn”t assure any particular reaction to the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement. Gapping down or a post-open dip would make an afternoon rally likelier.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2095.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2091.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2082.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.