Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2098.50 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2103.25 | 2096.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.25 | 2080.50 |
| …would target | 2080.75 | 2073.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
There is no higher target
There is no higher target in-play. Tuesday afternoon”s renewed bias-up target at 2088 was tested, and held. Closing above it would have put into play higher objectives. Despite reaching 2088 before the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30, and despite ranging there sideways for 90 minutes, 2088 held as resistance.
That”s not necessarily bearish, since neither was 2088 resistance rejected. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high didn”t attract new sponsorship at the final hour”s entry, but its reaction held above prior lows. So, no upside follow-through Wednesday is required, but it”s not precluded, and it wouldn”t be surprising.
Gapping up sufficiently could resume the rally despite Tuesday not closing above resistance. An overnight pullback has a lot of room below down to 2077 without being more than constructive pessimism ahead of the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement. Overnight strength will have to clear 2095.50 before suggesting that Tuesday”s rally may be duplicated.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
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Pre-close view… No more attractions.
Reversal”s rally is holding at its target.
The consequence to rejecting this morning”s bias objective was to put into play a test of what would have been the 2080.50 renewed bias-up target. That was met, while also triggering the afternoon”s 2077.00 bias-up signal.
But, wait, there”s more…
That put into play the 2082.00 bias-up target. Or, it would have, but the bias-up target was exceeded through 1:20. That renewed the bias-up signal, putting into play the renewed bias-up target at 2088.00.
And 2088.00 has been met. it was exceeded by 1 point, while still touching 2088.00, and while beginning a wider range between 2085.50-2089.00.
There”s no requirement to trend any higher. No higher objective is in-play, the bias-up environment has lapsed, there”s already been quite a sizable intraday rally, and heavy news from the FOMC is coming tomorrow. If a pullback isn”t merited, ranging sideways is.
Having said that, above 2088.00 there is potential to resume the rally, or at least to probe fresh session highs momentarily. Back under 2085.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback, probably to test 2077.00.
Daily Spot… Resting the trends.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s test of 1.1075/1.1120 resistance was gapped down Tuesday, testing 1.1030 whose break would target 1.0910 and possibly fresh lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness didn”t extend down Tuesday, but neither was it recovered. At least an attack on recent lows is still needed before a more substantial rally leg triggered above 1105.00 would be very credible.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s weakness might have been sufficient to stretch the rubber band deeply enough to launch a more substantial rally effort, which would be triggered back above 14.75.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s reaction down from fulfilling the 155-26 target resolved in gapping down Tuesday, but the gap back up to Monday”s 155-08 close should still be filled before a more substantial downleg would be credible.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight attacking 47.00 were recovered into positive territory before Tuesday”s open. That failed to extend through 48.25, which was the decline”s last target, or back above 49.25 which would start to signal a rally is underway.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming early Tuesday from Monday”s test of 2.77 support was retraced entirely back to Monday”s close, but not into negative territory. Closing above 2.88 would signal the consolidation had ended and a new rally leg is underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 29 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday morning”s Housing sector report might influence price action in case of a surprise. Econ reports during FOMC meetings can have that effect. But it is the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement that will be highest profile and the most reliable to influence price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
**FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET