Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.00 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2082.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.75 | 2071.00 |
| …would target | 2072.00 | 2065.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Overcome.
Fresh post-open lows swallowed by massive upleg.
My last update pointed out that testing the 2073.00 bias-up target so near the open had opened the door to an offsetting test of the 2054.50 bias-down target. That seems like a long, long time ago.
Filling the gap back down to yesterday”s 2061.50 cash session close had potential to launch a second corrective bounce. Corrective, on the way down to testing this morning”s 2060.00 bias-down signal, being the consequence for having failed to hold above the 2067.50 bias-up signal through 10:15.
This was some reaction. it rallied 12 points from 2061.50 to 2073.50. It might be more than a reaction.
Since there are fresh lows after 10:15, the attraction below can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment above the open”s 2072.25 high. The reward for absorbing and rejecting post-open sellers should be to fulfill what would have been the renewed bias-up target at 2080.50.
Entering the noon hour back under 2071.00 would suggest this morning”s lower objective was not invalidated, and that it remains intact. Otherwise, 2080.50 is in-play.
Post-open review… No man is an island. Neither are some islands.
Overnight rally leaves no buying pressure to defend the open.
The pre-open dip back down to 2071.00 wasted no time after the open extending down much deeper to 2063.00. Probing back into the potential Island Reversal pattern disqualified it. But that wasn”t proof of momentum reversing down, not yet. Just a growing likelihood.
Reacting up to 2069.25 was resolved down to a fresh low at 2061.50. Along the way, failing to recover the 2067.50 bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2060.00 bias-down signal.
Post-open action came within 3 ticks of the 2073.00 bias-up target, which was probed considerably overnight. This creates potential for an offsetting test of the 2054.50 bias-down target, too. But not a requirement.
Fresh lows after 10:15 make it more difficult to invalidate the objective below. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above its 2067.50 bias-up signal won”t suffice. So, this current bounce testing is likely to fail. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment above the open”s 2072.25 high can still invalidate the bias-down signal”s attraction.
This morning”s open is being
This morning”s open is being greeted by attacking the 2071 lower-end of overnight ranging off the 2077-2078 highs. Even if probed further, holding its support through 9:45 would help to entrench the upside momentum. Otherwise, there is potential to probe under yesterday”s lows on the way down to 2051… Details and other markets coverage were discussed in the pre-market Tour here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwpmbk
The First Trade… Island Hopping.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Sunday night”s slide extended down to fresh lows at 2056.50 through Monday”s open. Recovering back above the 2063.50 opening print to attack 2070.00 was retraced back to the morning”s low. A last-minute surge recovered 2063.50 through the close, extending higher to 2065.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s last-minute surge firmed further to attack 2067.00 but dipped back to 2063.50 while China”s crash resumed. Then it un-resumed, encouraging a bigger bounce that extended to 2077.00. Ranging flat-to-higher has held 2071.00 as support, while briefly probing fresh highs above 2078.00.
If, then…
Since yesterday afternoon”s sellers didn”t gain, dipping only between timing windows, the decline became vulnerable to correcting. Gapping up too shallowly would produce only a brief correction that would soon resume trending down to the 2051.00 target in-play. But gapping up well into Friday afternoon”s 2070.00-2077.00 range could form a longer-lasting Island reversal. Overnight action has retraced that range, and can now either sustain it to begin a multi-session corrective bounce. Maintaining the gap up wouldn”t necessarily extend much higher yet this morning. Not maintaining the gap could become a massive “outside day” that could fulfill the lower target.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2077.00 would be likely also exceed the 2073.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2080.50. Exiting the open under 2071.25 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2067.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.