Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2067.50 |
| …would target | 2080.75 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.75 | 2060.00 |
| …would target | 2071.50 | 2054.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Resuming the plunge Monday afternoon
Resuming the plunge Monday afternoon became less and less likely as each timing window lapsed. The bias environment exit was within the noon hour”s range and the final hour”s entry was within the bias environment”s range. Fresh lows were finally probed, but not until the ~15 minutes between ending the 3:10-3:20 timing window and beginning the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. That”s not a sponsored move.
The unsponsored fresh low only touched the morning”s 2056.50 low, obligatory support. The obligatory bounce recovered 2060 into the cash session close, encouraged by 1-minute RSI diverging positively, the last-minute bounce surged to 2064.50.
Last-minute is the least relevant timing window, and now its oversold condition has been neutralized. Gapping up Tuesday is still possible, back above 2073-2077 to form a temporary Island. Otherwise, 2051.25 down to 2048.25 is next in-play.
More details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour here:
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Daily Spot… No boundaries.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night”s rally soared past the 1.1045 bounce limit to test 1.1120 by almost 40 pips. Closing back under 1.1075 would target 1.0990 just as a pullback. Closing under 1.1045 would have been likely to trend down sharply to at least retest recent lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight testing of the 1100.00 bounce limit reacted down before Monday”s open to retrace the post-close gain above Friday”s close back to the 10880.00 area. Another bounce was restrained by 1100.00 Monday, keeping the door open to reversing back down.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging Monday suggests a recovery could be delayed by retesting last week”s lows. But immediately rallying would be more credible by gapping up (i.e. rallying already overnight).
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks helped Sunday night”s rally extend to the 155-26 target. There is no requirement to trend any higher, but reversing down requires closing under 154-00.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under the 48.25 target that was met Thursday would have suggested the decline is extending to 44.25, except the session didn”t trend down. So, early trending Tuesday in either direction is likely to extend intraday.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Holding 2.77 support Monday didn”t attract sponsorship for a rally. Ignoring a second consecutive opportunity to break lower doesn”t prevent probing lower Tuesday. But hovering at support for so long does suggest that a break lower would be reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 28 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s calendar is busy, with 2-3 high-profile items. The post-open Consumer Confidence is most influential among them, but reaction to it should duplicate any earlier report”s reaction.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2067.50 |
| …would target | 2080.75 | 2073.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2067.75 | 2060.00 |
| …would target | 2061.50 | 2054.50 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.