Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Holding lower.
REMINDER: I’M UNAVAILABLE BY NOON. PM BIAS PARAMETERS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, BUT NO OTHER UPDATES UNTIL THIS EVENING…
Rallying off of the 2767.25 overnight low gained 20 points at the pre-open high. It was retested post-open, but never exceeded to signal momentum reversing up. Reversing back down triggered this morning’s 2780.25 bias-down signal and extended to 2772.00, but was still overlapping the 2775.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
It’s still a bias-down environment. Which fresh lows at 2769.50 after 10:15 are confirming.
It’s still a bias-down environment. So, the decline can still extend to what would have essentially been its renewed bias-down target at 2763.00. But the lower target isn’t in-play, and the entire session’s lower volume undermines any other usual reliability.
Meanwhile, RSIs aren’t deteriorating, which is also undermining the decline’s reliability. Selling pressure isn’t increasing, so back above 2778.00 — and recovering the 2780.25 bias-down signal when the bias environment begins lapsing — would point higher through the afternoon.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… AND A REMINDER.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s 20-point gap up to 2783.50 had extended overnight to 2814.00, testing the three-week old high session’s range. Resistance there pushed back to greet the open at the 2798.00 earlier Globex low, which didn’t hold, forming a Globe-flip setup. The setup triggered Monday morning’s decline. The decline’s minimum likely target was the actual morning low at 2773.50, a 61.8% retracement between Friday’s cash session close and Monday’s opening print. A bounce up to 2790.25 was largely retraced through the afternoon bias environment. Closing lower would have signaled the Globex-flip would also influence Tuesday morning — bouncing to 2793.00 went out overlapping the afternoon high, neither reinstating the bearish Globex-flip nor terminating it.
Overnight action’s new info…
The Still overlapping the afternoon high blipped-up momentarily after the close to 2794.50. Trending down from there through midnight probed fresh lows attacking 2767.00. Bouncing back above yesterday’s low into Europe’s opens up to this morning’s 2780.25 bias-up signal. Correcting it with a 61.8% pullback is now bouncing again to attack 2784.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
REMINDER: I’M UNAVAILABLE BY NOON. PM BIAS PARAMETERS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, BUT NO OTHER UPDATES UNTIL THIS EVENING… Gapping down under Monday’s low would suggest the Globex-flip is being reinstated by proxy. Lower lows have potential to 2763.00, but probably no lower before bouncing to keep alive the rally’s momentum. Any deeper would overlap Friday’s cash session “lower prior highs” when optimism needs to remain intact. None of which is indicated currently. If overnight selling has only stretched the rubber band to snap back up, fresh highs up to 2818.25-2823.00 would be in-play, albeit not necessarily today. Volume will diminish — probably less so than pre-weekend or pre-holiday evaporation, but still inhibiting sponsorship..
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2784.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2780.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2777.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2797.50 | 2798.00 |
| …would target | 2805.50 | 2806.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2780.00 | 2780.25 |
| …would target | 2775.00 | 2775.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
REMINDER: I’M UNAVAILABLE BY NOON TUESDAY. PM BIAS PARAMETERS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE, BUT NO OTHER UPDATES UNTIL THE EVENING.
Sunday night’s gap up to 2783.50 had extended overnight to 2814.00, testing the three-week old high session’s range. Resistance there pushed back to greet the open at the 2798.00 earlier Globex low, which didn’t hold, forming a Globe-flip setup. The setup triggered Monday morning’s decline.
The decline’s minimum likely target became a 61.8% retracement between Friday’s cash session close and Monday’s opening print at 2773.50. That served as the actual morning low.
Bouncing through the noon hour’s exit up to 2790.25 trended back down through the afternoon bias environment. Avoiding a fresh session low — especially closing lower — prevents the Globex-flip from necessarily influencing Tuesday morning. Trending down Tuesday morning is possible, but not due to the Globex-flip. Lower lows have potential to 2763.00, but probably no lower before bouncing.
Closing at fresh afternoon highs would have signaled the Globex-flip had been absorbed. But its probe up to 2793.50 only reacted back down through the close. Triggering a retest of three-week old highs up to 2818.25-2823.00 must await another setup.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held its 1.1330 pullback limit Friday, closing back above 1.1370 would signal a new upleg underway. It was probed overnight up to 1.1380 but still being tested through the afternoon.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally gapped up Monday to ~1235.00 prior highs and added $5-6 intraday. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would overcome the bearish distributive pattern that had been forming but never was confirmed.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up above last week’s ~14.45 highs probed another dime higher intraday to fill a 2-week old gap. The gap held, but closing higher Tuesday would undermine the bearish bigger picture.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Sunday night to 140-06 was recovered through Monday morning to fresh highs at 141-06. The previous range does qualify as multi-session. So, closing higher Tuesday would confirm a breakout underway.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s premature for gapping up to launch a durable rally, but Monday’s gap up is in-line with the pattern. The gap should be filled, and preferably not minimally, before a new upleg would be credible.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday below the 4.44 buy signal filled a gap back down to 4.33, which held, but must still recover 4.44 to reinstate the rally.