Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… The next step is pivotal. Literally.
Pivotal correction forming. Has Globex-flip lapsed?
The open tested the 2798.00 earlier Globex low, indicating the morning would trend down. It didn’t hold. 
The 61.8% retracement between the opening print and Friday’s cash session close was touched at the 2773.50 low. It held.
Bouncing into the afternoon bias environment came within 1 point of its 2791.25 bias-up target. Being a bias-up environment, its 2784.50 bias-up signal should define the window’s lower-end — at least requiring its retracement if probed below. It’s being probed below.
We prefer that an objective be met to within at least 3 ticks, or else it becomes “unfinished business.” So, 2791.25 will become unfinished business above if not met. While coming within only 4 ticks isn’t optimal, it’s not a deal killer if momentum wants to reverse down. And currently a reaction down is testing 2780.00.
Only the noon hour has rallied, not the afternoon bias environment. We’re not yet assured that the bearish Globex-flip won’t be influential tomorrow morning, too, targeting 2763.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One low-profile non-influential econ report is scheduled Tuesday, and one Fed speaker. Afternoon volume and volume need not contract substantially ahead of Wednesday’s closure for honoring the late President Bush. But the environment may not be conducive to trading… Remember that I’ll be away from the screens from late-morning on.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*John Williams Speaks
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2784.25 | 2784.50 |
| …would target | 2791.00 | 2791.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2773.00 | 2773.25 |
| …would target | 2766.75 | 2767.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Up, a lot (but a little less).
Open breaks under the overnight range.
Having probed Friday’s high overnight, exiting the open under the earlier Globex low would trigger a Globex-flip setup. 
The 2814.00 overnight had reacted down to test the 2798.00 earlier Globex low down to 2795.00. So, the Globex-flip setup had formed.
But did it trigger?
The 2798.00 earlier Globex low was still being overlapped as the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed at 9:45. The setup has no grace period, but it’s optimal to have resolved by then. Price soon collapsed down to 2785.00, and its reaction up didn’t threaten to recover 2798.00 (it was just attacked, much later, to within 2 points).
The Globex-flip setup’s influence would point down through this morning — and if not already reversing up through this afternoon, then down through at least tomorrow morning, too. The minimum likely near-term objective is 2784.00 (now being tested down to 2781.25), and for having delayed its test, probably also 2773.50.
Otherwise, back above 2795.50 would start to signal the bearish setup’s influence was overwhelmed, targeting a retest of overnight highs.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Big gap up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s dip was contained well within the intraday range, but still capable of derailing the rally. A pre-open surge avoided opening too low, and avoided confirming that Thursday’s late dip back under Wednesday’s high had gained traction. The minimum reward or consequence to retest Thursday’s high was done Friday afternoon, following two no-bias environments that could hardly wait until lapsing to probe their bias-up signals. The behavior wasn’t overly optimistic as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective, and suggested the rally is credible for extending higher. Closing above Thursday’s high put into play the next higher objective at 2768.00-2770.00, and extending higher post-close came within almost 3 points.
Overnight action’s new info…
Weekend developments from the G20 included a Trump-China trade truce, or at least a cease fire. That’s the highest-profile among other slightly less prominent developments elsewhere globally that have replaced recent and near-term unknowns with predictability. Sunday night’s 2793.50 Globex open gapped up nearly 30 points — 37 points from Friday’s cash session close equivalent — and extended to almost 2810.00. Natural resistance there from a 3-week old gap at prior highs initially held. Its pullback to 2798.00 was recovered by fresh highs up to 2814.00 into Europe’s opens. That was brief, as another dip is back under earlier highs testing 2795.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Suddenly, the recovery we’ve been weighing has become obvious to all. And as suddenly, its correction back down comes to the forefront. Having established higher targets at Friday’s close and entrenching the rally, there was already vulnerability to dipping Monday morning. Weekend developments may be too recent to serve as a catalyst that attracts an influential degree of retail players. A post-open higher high can’t yet be discounted, but it wouldn’t tolerate much dissent before rolling over into a correction that lasts through Tuesday morning. And having probed the prior session’s high, a Globex-flip setup could form if the cash session’s open were maintained back under the 2798.00 earlier Globex low. The sad passing of President George H.W. Bush has introduced a closed session on Wednesday, which affects trading decisions and the market’s timing. Avoiding any bearish setups this morning — including the rejection of probing overnight highs — could form a short-squeeze up instead of correction fown.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2798.00 would have potential for testing this morning’s 2773.00 as support.