Posts by Rod David
Sucking fuel from the fire.
Probing fresh lows.
This morning”s bias environment continued sinking, attacking 2111.00. That level happened also to be this afternoon”s bias-down signal. The noon hour”s exit probed under it to 2109.00. And triggered it. Its 2105.50 bias-down target is in-play.
Meanwhile, this is all no-bias trending under this morning”s 2117.50 bias-down signal. That didn”t trigger, so it should be retested.
None of which is unexpected. Not that the decline need extend down relentlessly or substantially. Only that any credible upleg beyond a temporary bounce probably won”t develop much before the final hour.
Exiting the bias environment above its 2111.00without yet printing a fresh low under 2109.00 would make a recovery more credible. A bounce might not develop today at all, and lower attractions remain outstanding at 2105.50 down to 2103.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s two housing sector reports aren”t necessarily influential, not individually. But announcing near each other does have potential either to confirm or to invalidate one of the data being an outlier. Otherwise, the two highest profile earnings reports are GILD and KO.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2126.00 | 2119.00 |
| …would target | 2130.75 | 2124.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2117.75 | 2111.00 |
| …would target | 2112.50 | 2105.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… The lid is on it.
Probing lower.
Yesterday afternoon”s buyers tried gaining traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high. But new sponsorship wasn”t attracted, so they gained no traction for the effort. Attracting new sponsorship overnight would have gapped up today. No gap up = downside risk.
A lot of that risk materialized during the pre-open 7-1/2 point drop that touched this morning”s 2117.50 bias-down signal. Having expended so much selling pressure and touching support, the open bounced 4 points to touch yesterday”s 2121.75 close.
Reacting down since then has pierced the 2117.50 pre-open low. It”s too late to trigger bias-down, and too late to invalidate the no-bias. The 2117.50 bias-down signal should define the range”s lower-end, but that can be fulfilled by recovering up to it after probing it deeply.
In fact, room for noise below it down to 2115.50 is being attacked now to within 1 tick. It could be probed another 10 points. Meanwhile, unfinished business above is left outstanding, but buyers need to be attracted, presumably from lower levels.
The overnight reaction down from
The overnight reaction down from Europe”s opens has resumed. Bouncing 2 points off of 2120.50 gave way to fresh lows at 2118. The bias-down signal is 2 ticks lower. Holding its test and recovering 2119 through the open would make a bounce credible. But lower lows are likely since today”s open isn”t gapping up after yesterday afternoon”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their effort. Recovering 2122 through a relevant window could change that, but anything shallower would still be expected to resolve down. Details in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcbbwh