Posts by Rod David
The First Trade.,, Pausing here won’t be refreshing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s modest gap up to the morning”s 2121.75 bias-up signal had reacted down under Friday”s highs to 2116.50, putting into play a test of the bias-down signal. But that singular bearish influence was overwhelmed by the bullish WedEX and several other bullish factors. The bias-up signal was recovered on the way to afternoon highs testing the 2126.00 area. A failed attempt to gain traction was reversed down to attack 2119.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding at the afternoon”s 2128.25 bias-up target.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-higher ranging tested 2125.00 into Europe”s opens. Reacting back down to the 2120.50 area is trying to firm again.
If, then…
Having failed to gain traction yesterday afternoon, extending the rally this morning all but requires gapping up through yesterday”s highs. The alternative would at least back-and-fill, probably down to 2103.00. Unlike a rally”s gap up origin, a path down has no specific characteristic, such as its slope.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2127.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2125.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2119.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2132.25 | 2125.50 |
| …would target | 2138.00 | 2131.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2124.25 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2119.25 | 2112.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
CHANGE: The anymeeting XP-Friendly link
CHANGE: The anymeeting XP-Friendly link for Monday night”s chaRTroom has been changed to:
https://www.anymeeting.com/218-843-828
The alternative xp UN-friendly link is unchanged at:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Monday”s gain was nominal, just
Monday”s gain was nominal, just +1 point at the cash session close, +3 points at the futures close. At least, the gain appeared small compared to having been ahead 7 points an hour before the close.
The late drop prevented buyers from gaining traction. Although the bias environment had been exited above the noon hour”s high, neither of the next two checkpoints confirmed. But did sellers gain anything for their effort?
The close was testing 2120.75-2122 as support. This was the prior timing window”s low whose earlier break could have invalidated the afternoon”s bias-up. Earlier. Breaking under it through the close would have been too late — whether by 1 point or by 10. And, anyway, it wasn”t broken. So, sellers expended all of that energy, when they weren”t going to gain any traction for the effort.
The afternoon”s 2128.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business above” that requires being tested, regardless. Monday”s late drop does require gapping up above 2125.50 to resume the rally without delay. Not gapping up would be vulnerable to inserting a pullback to 2103, or to 2190-2191.
Details and other markets coverage were reviewed during the post-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpmmcr
Monday night”s chaRTroom links to view Globex:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/121-843-828
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view… More to come?
Unfinished business above at this afternoon”s 2128.25 bias-up target. Invalidating it became difficult after probing above its pre-1:20 high. Now invalidating it is almost impossible, having exited the bias environment at a fresh session extreme, attacking 2126.00.
The rally isn”t precluded from retracing. Having entrenched the upside attraction, the pattern becomes vulnerable to a corrective dip, and has reacted down to 2124.00. But exiting the bias environment at a new session extreme is rarely reversed during the next timing window.
More so, the rally can gain traction that helps to ensure trending higher tomorrow morning. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high is half of the traction signal. The other half is to enter the final hour above the bias environment”s 2125.50 high, or to probe new highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.
Entering the final hour back under the 2120.75 prior low could still invalidate the upward moment. But even that would be suspicious. Otherwise, the rally”s minimum 2136.25 target is only getting closer.