Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Gold’s bottoming attempt hits the bricks.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
No unfinished business below is outstanding, so closing back above 1.0910 after Monday”s ongoing test of 1.0855 support would signal at least a corrective rally underway.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s “flash crash” down to 1080.00 allowed room for a corrective bounce up to 1118.00-1122.00 before retesting the spike”s low down to 1076.50. Closing above the bounce limit”s upper-end woul suggest a bigger bounce underway. Meanwhile, touching the bounce limit”s lower-end already reacted down to attack 1100.00, which is probably obligatory support. Just closing under 1103.00 would signal the low”s retest underway.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Participating with Gold”s “flash crash” more in spirit than in substance was obvious by Monday”s reversal from testing 14.50 overnight, back into positive territory attacking 15.00. But that doesn”t prevent probing lower lows anyway, or at least remaining under pressure. The next lower support to be tested is now 14.40-14.45.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night”s initial probe up to 152-16 was reversed to the 151-14 pullback limit. It resolved up Monday to hover pessimistically short of Friday”s 152-07 close, seemingly waiting to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite holding Friday”s test of the prior week”s lows, Sunday night did not recover, and Monday extended down under $50 toward its 48.00 target.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping open Monday under the 2.83 pullback limit only attacked its room down to 2.77 before recovering back to Friday”s 2.87 close. Its reaction down was still testing the 2.83 pullback limit as support.
Backing into being back on-track.
Morning”s recovery extending higher.
This morning”s lone bearish setup was invalidated. Having held a test of the 2121.75 bias-up signal through 10:15, and offsetting test of the 2113.75 bias-down signal was put into play. But whatever was signaled at 10:15 was invalidated by exiting the bias environment above its bias-up signal — so long as the pre-10:15 low hadn”t been probed, which it wasn”t.
All of the bullish setups won out. RSIs diverging positively at the low, the opening dip”s entrenched origin, and the bullish WedEX, all suggested the bias parameter was influenced by whatever also produced Friday”s opening slide.
Now this afternoon”s 2123.25 bias-up signal has triggered. And it has been productive, already probing its pre-1:20 high. Invalidating it would require exiting the bias environment under the last timing window”s low, 2122.00, if not also under 2120.75. Meanwhile, 2128.25 is in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Not much influential is on tap for Tuesday. At least, not intraday. However, two high-profile earnings announcements are due, which might inhibit the afternoon from trending..
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Earnings due: AAPL, MSFT
post-close
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2130.25 | 2123.25 |
| …would target | 2135.25 | 2128.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2125.00 | 2118.00 |
| …would target | 2120.00 | 2113.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Ex-WedEX?
Opening dip avoids recovering in time to re-establish momentum.
The bullish WedEX indicator triggered not at Wednesday”s close, but by proxy at Thursday”s gap up. Triggering late made it less reliable. But that became moot when it influenced Friday afternoon.
So, it”s influential this morning, too. That doesn”t prevent dipping, but it does make the dip”s recovery likely. In fact, holding a test of the 2121.75 bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2113.75 bias-down signal. So, that test is likely to recover.
Just by gapping up there was extra room created to absorb post-open selling pressure. Gapping up at all at this stage is not bearish, and suggests that any reaction down will ultimately recover. The bullish WedEX might not be very productive, but its upward bias should ultimately overcome any pessimistic price action.
Of course, rallying strongly was likely this morning, which isn”t (yet) happening. Until the pre-10:15 2116.50 low is broken, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above its 2121.75 bias-up signal would invalidate the lower objective… and reinstate the rally to new highs.