Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.75 | 2108.50 |
| …would target | 2120.50 | 2113.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.25 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2100.00 | 2092.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Standing still would soon fall.
“Standing still is to fall behind.” – R. Buckminster Fuller
The rally followed my strategy for hovering under the noon hour”s highs until the bias environment began lapsing. Breaking above 2101.50 has extended 3 points to fresh highs testing 2104.25.
That may extend higher to test 2105.50. Regardless, the fresh highs create more room to absorb selling pressure, so that today”s close can still confirm yesterday”s breakout.
Meanwhile, the bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high. The rally would gain traction if that were combined with entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2102.75 high, or trending up to fresh session highs above 2104.50 through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.
But entering the final hour back under the morning”s 2101.50 high, or trending under it through 3:10-3:20 — would start to reverse momentum down. And this setup”s objective would be to close negative on the day.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s test of 1.1000 support was probed slightly overnight before bouncing into Tuesday”s gap up. Filling the gap back down to 1.0935 remains in-play, so the bounce quickly peaked upon attacking 1.1100 and reversed back down to 1.1000 support.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having recovered only to 1158.50 Monday but no higher, Tuesday”s narrowly ranging inside day reinstates the potential for trending through 1158.50 and 1163.00 to signal a new rally leg..
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday”s low was pierced overnight but Tuesday”s intraday range was otherwise an inside day. Its downward bias would make a surge through 15.45 credible to gain traction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging Tuesday around Monday”s close didn”t qualify as the fresh low, which is still needed at 148-08 or lower, before a buy signal would be credible any lower than 150-24.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An overnight dip in reaction to the Iran treaty”s announcement was recovered back to 52.00 support before Tuesday”s open. But that still wasn”t reversed up to even attack the 54.30 buy signal, making fresh lows targeting 48.00 increasingly possible.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight tested 2.93 at Tuesday”s open before reversing down intraday to test 2.83 as support. The pattern shouldn”t require any further backing-and-filling before extending to probe above 3.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday is busy, mostly because of Fed chair Yellen”s House portion of the semi-annual two-day Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Customarily, the embargo on her opening remarks is lifted at 10:00am. Previously, she has thrown the market a curve by releasing her remarks hours earlier at 8:30am. Regardless, the early stage of her testimony can effect price action. The pre-open PPI is also high-profile and influential to price action. Two other Fed speakers on Wednesday will keep things volatile, along with the afternoon”s Beige Book release.
Esther George Speaks — hawk
Tue 8:15 PM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks — dove
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks — dove
12:25 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks — dove
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.75 | 2102.50 |
| …would target | 2115.00 | 2108.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.25 | 2095.25 |
| …would target | 2096.50 | 2089.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.