Posts by Rod David
On the verge of confirmation.
Morning-long rally is helping to protect yesterday”s breakout.
The open”s 2093.50 buy signal”s minimum objective at 2097.00 wasn”t quickly exceeded. Its 2099.00 area target wasn”t exceeded immediately, either.
As much time has been spent consolidating 1 tick under the 2101.75 bias-up target. But it is no less influential, and exceeding it would be no less relevant.
Of course, exceeding the 2101.75 bias-up target into the noon hour would be more relevant than delaying it.
Regardless, a bias environment has trended up to be exited above prior highs. These combined conditions usually marginalize sellers, and often extend the trend. Marginalized sellers don”t preclude there being a dip, only that the dip is likely temporary and recovered. And extending the trend often must wait for that temporary dip.
A pullback could be limited to 2097.50 or 2096.25 before recovering to resume the rally. Extending higher, first, would have potential to 2105.50.
Post-open review… Barely skipping a beat.
Surging to fresh highs, and its targets.
The open”s surge through its 2094.50 buy signal extended higher to its minimum 2097.00 target. A consolidation there has resolved up to probe the next higher target of 2099.00.
Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are diverging negatively simultaneously.
Meanwhile, this is a late bias-up environment. The 2096.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window. Triggering late makes the 2101.75 bias-up target more of a guideline than a requirement.
So long as pullbacks hold any test of 2097.00 as support, the trend remains up. Otherwise, we”ll soon be discussing the potential for a pivot reversal session.
Pre-open action has slipped a
Pre-open action has slipped a little further than the earlier overnight lows. After recovering to yesterday”s 2094.75 high, a slide in reaction to Retail Sales has touched 2090.50. Gapping down is now likely. Rallying to new highs remains possible, which either would confirm yesterday”s breakout, or else form a bearish pivot reversal. Extending down remains possible, and the parameters and consequences for each were discussed during the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyxtrc
The First Trade… Waiting for the first to blink.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up to 2084.75 was well above the morning”s bias-up target, and it still extended 6-1/2 points higher. A pullback into the noon hour”s 2086.00 low wasn”t recovered enough to trigger the afternoon”s bias-up signal. But when the environment began lapsing, having avoided multiple opportunities to reverse momentum down, the balance of the session trended up to 2094.75.
Overnight action”s new info…
Relatively narrow ranging did manage to touch a fresh high at 2095.25 before dipping down to 2091.50 into Europe”s opens.. Price has since firmed back to yesterday”s 2094.75 high.
If, then…
Yesterday”s surge recovered relevant levels too late to reflect the rally gaining traction. Extending higher overnight would have given the rally credibility. Trending up above relevant levels through the open could still reflect strong-handed buyers being attracted. Having hovered optimistically throughout the night, extending higher would be more credible if appearing much sooner, rather than later. And until extending higher, the pattern meanwhile is vulnerable to at least a corrective dip with potential down to 2077.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2086.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2089.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2099.25 would be likely to trigger the 2096.50 bias-up signal.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.50 | 2096.50 |
| …would target | 2107.75 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.00 | 2089.00 |
| …would target | 2089.50 | 2082.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.