Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.50 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2098.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2084.00 |
| …would target | 2084.75 | 2077.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Legs.
Overnight recovery finds post-open sponsorship.
The 2084.75 open extended higher without delay. Ranging around the 2087.50 overnight high formed a Symmetrical Triangle that has broken higher to 2091.25.
This gets into the target area around 2092.00 that I defined during Saturday Review. A reaction down becomes likely when combined with the Triangle — a pattern that tends often to break falsely initially before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
Patience is NOT a virtue at this stage. Refueling sellers by trapping shorts shouldn”t be necessary. This should be the stage where trapped shorts are squeezed to help fuel the rally. But reacting down could target the 2077.00 area just as a corrective dip that still recovers.
Extending deeper down to 2073.00 still could launch another upleg, but much less reliably. The most bullish scenario is to simply extend higher this morning to exit the bias environment above the 2092.00 area.
Trading flat-to-lower off the 2087.50
Trading flat-to-lower off the 2087.50 overnight high is trying to recover from dipping to 2080.75. That”s well above the 2078.50 bias-up target, which could attract price down at least to test it as support, unless the open quickly breaks through 2086.75. More detail and other market coverage was discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwpwpj
The First Trade… Reversal of misfortune.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s post-close reversal had trended up overnight to gap up Friday at Wednesday”s 2068.00 opening high. Reacting down this time held 2060.00 and resumed trending through the day, albeit shallowly. The rally gained traction from a late-afternoon attack on 2075.00, reacting down to test the open”s 2068.00 high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Weekend developments surrounding Greece were quite different from Thursday”s post-close catalyst. Sunday night”s gap down touched 2052.00, retracing 61.8% of the rally from Wednesday”s low to Thursday”s high. I noted in the chaRTroom that could have been much worse. Recovering back to unchanged was corrected before surging past Friday”s highs to 2079.00 through Europe”s opens. That has extended to attack 2088.00, as much into positive territory as Sunday night”s gap down was negative.
If, then…
Friday”s rally had gained traction, so trending up this morning all but requires extending a gap up through the open. And the indicated gap up would break above the two-week trading range highs where previous gaps up went to die. A reaction down could test the range”s “lower prior highs” down to the 2073.00 area before suggesting another recovery effort has failed.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2081.50 would suggest the 2078.50 bias-up target will remain recovered through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2068.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2073.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
This is why they call
This is why they call it a trading range… Weekend developments have gone quite contrary to the favorable cycle that began after Thursday”s close. Friday”s gains are in jeopardy. I”ll comment in the chaRTroom later this evening, but you can watch Sunday night”s open in real-time at either link below (note that the XP-Friendly availability may not be immediate):
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/473-929-055
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy