Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jul 13 2015… Bank on it.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
The past week brought news of a legislative initiative to remove one of the major barriers to conducting business in the cannabis industry. While perfectly willing to accept cash for payment of tax collected on cannabis sales, government is unwilling to permit cannabis businesses access to common banking services. The legislation acknowledges the hypocrisy, while not endorsing the industry. Regardless, barriers to conducting business are barriers to attracting investors.
Not that this makes overvalued stocks suddenly fairly valued. That”s not my expertise, but chart patterns have suggested for a long time that the sector was in decline. There have been exceptions…
Last week”s Universe highlighted corrective bounces becoming likely in MDBX and VAPE. They followed through quickly. I”ve updated specific parameters in real-time on the Activity Feed. I”m still stalking TRTC, which has rolled over from its recent consolidation, to attack prior lows where there is potential for a bigger corrective bounce.
We”re still talking about corrective bounces, and broader sector declines. Perhaps easing banking regulations will change the conversation.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for July 13, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 8 | 7.92% |
| trends* | # flat: | 14 | 13.86% |
| # down: | 79 | 78.22% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.008 | 0.022 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.180 | 0.385 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.000 | 2.440 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 12.400 | 14.450 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.029 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.008 | 0.015 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC (axxu) | 0.037 | 0.140 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.021 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.360 | 4.140 | flat |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 32.450 | 39.600 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.116 | 0.171 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.051 | flat |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.052 | 0.070 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | flat |
| NDEV | 0.040 | 0.165 | down |
| NMUS | 1.220 | 3.200 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| NTRR | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.250 | 0.337 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.190 | 0.237 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.129 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.040 | 0.130 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.107 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.058 | down |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.064 | 0.157 | down |
| TRTC | 0.090 | 0.180 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.315 | 0.470 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO (1:5) | 0.663 | 1.960 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 12.000 | up |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.710 | 0.950 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/11/15) …Fallen and can’t get up.
This weekend”s Saturday Review described how to recognize a durable or false breakout from the recent two-week old range, and the consequences of either. Below is the chat transcript, and a chronological list of the stock requests we reviewed. The recording”s links are:
MP4 version || Non-mp4 version
AAPL, TSO, VLO, NVLX, GWPH, GOOGL, NKE, CSCO, Crude Oil (CL), Copper (HG)
07/11/2015 09:32:59 Mark : gm
07/11/2015 09:33:20 G: echo
07/11/2015 09:56:15 Mark Glezer: is the likeliest scenario now to probe
higher Mon to 2090-2095 and close under Fri high?
07/11/2015 10:00:41 Mark Glezer: first break out would likely be false
whatever direction or not necessarily?
07/11/2015 10:00:53 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:01:03 David B: we have greece,china,and earnings going on.
how does one know which one the market is focusing on or does it matter
in the bigger picture?
07/11/2015 10:02:18 Mark Glezer: there is expectation that earnings will
likely be bad
07/11/2015 10:02:54 David B: so we”ll know with second second close what
the focus is?
07/11/2015 10:03:06 David B: to new highs
07/11/2015 10:05:15 Mark Glezer: do u expect a real break out of this
range – not a false one – to occur with a big move, perhaps doubling the
size of the range – 50*2 = 100 pts?
07/11/2015 10:05:26 David B: they were saying china having an impact on
aapl
07/11/2015 10:05:50 David B: could have an impact on aapl
07/11/2015 10:08:38 Mark Glezer: if not earnings or geo-political event,
what do u think will be a driving force to move to a new range in ES?
07/11/2015 10:13:07 Mark Glezer: yes
07/11/2015 10:13:19 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:15:50 David B: TSO,VLO
07/11/2015 10:15:51 Mark Glezer: last Q – above
07/11/2015 10:15:55 David B: GOOGL
07/11/2015 10:17:39 David B: it seems like the nasdaq is underperforming
so if we got a second higher close would this mean we would need the
speculative stocks to lead this higher?
07/11/2015 10:22:07 David B: would you categorize the drop of china
differently than 87 in that is was more in line with your crash scenario
you have discussed before?
07/11/2015 10:24:09 Rod David: m r: Another question about the braoder
market – Since the pattern which preceded the current range was a Double
Failed Breakout of the Ascending Triangle, does that undermine the
ability for the market to return to and/or exceed those highs?
07/11/2015 10:24:43 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:27:21 David B: also have a question above my china crash
question
07/11/2015 10:28:33 David B: nasdaw underperforming
07/11/2015 10:28:44 David B: yes
07/11/2015 10:30:10 Mark Glezer: AAPL is somewhat deceptive in that
sense since it is also a part of DOW now
07/11/2015 10:33:21 Mark Glezer: in a sense of reflecting NDX
underperformance
07/11/2015 10:42:02 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL pls
07/11/2015 10:43:57 Mark Glezer: right
07/11/2015 10:44:16 Mark Glezer: both NDX & DOW
07/11/2015 10:44:55 Mark Glezer: doesn”t indicate outperformance of one
& underperformance of the other
07/11/2015 10:45:09 Mark Glezer: AAPL that is
07/11/2015 10:57:00 Mark Glezer: my comment on AAPL was that since it is
now a part of both NDX & DOW it cannot be used to indicate outperformnce
of the one & underperformance of the other, it can only be reflection of
the move when NDX & DOW move in the same direction
07/11/2015 10:58:00 Mark Glezer: agree
07/11/2015 10:58:30 Mark Glezer: k
07/11/2015 10:58:49 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/11/2015 10:59:26 David B: thanks
Join us this morning at
Join us this morning at 9:30am ET for “bigger picture” discussion at this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll also do instant stock chart analyses per your request.
Log-in here:
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Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2080.50 | 2073.50 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2078.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2071.25 | 2064.25 |
| …would target | 2065.00 | 2058.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Friday”s buyers gained traction for
Friday”s buyers gained traction for their efforts. It wasn”t optimal, with the final hour”s entry only barely above the bias environment”s high. But it was higher. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window did trend up to fresh highs. The reward is control of Monday morning”s bias environment.
The last 60-90 minute window”s 8-point slide seems not to have appreciated that buyers gained traction. Actually, the close was at least 1 point above the relevant 2068 level. So, unless gapping down sharply enough Monday, fresh highs are likely.
Gapping down sharply is a possibility. So is gapping up sharply. Greece is just hours away from its vote, and her lenders are just a few more hours away from meeting. There will be headlines.
The late move and other market coverage was discussed during the post-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyxytj
Join us for bigger picture discussion at this weekend”s Saturday Review. You may also request stock chart analyses. It starts at 9:30am ET, linked here:
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