Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Scared shorts.
The no-bias environment began lapsing at the bottom of the hour. It is being exited within the noon hour”s range. But that”s on the way to probing above the 2072.50 high.
Having pulled back (to 2066.00) during the no-bias environment, no other backing-and-filling should be necessary before rallying. So, another pullback from this initial probe above 2072.50 would suggest that the probe doesn”t actually intend to extend.
That also comports with the timing. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2071.75 high would gain traction by also extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 timing window.
Extending higher would next target a test of 2076.00. Otherwise, a dip has room down to 2068.00 before beginning to signal anything more substantial to the downside underway.
Daily Spot.. Greek gifts.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A funny thing happened on the way to filling the gap back to Tuesday”s 1.0935 opening gap. The interim test of the 1.1200 bounce limit had reacted down Thursday only to test 1.1000 support. The post-close Greece news triggered a gap up above the interim highs to test 1.1325 before drifting back down Friday to attack 1.1200 as support. Back under 1.1200 makes 1.0935”s test likelier next., but there is otherwise no active signal.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging only narrowed Friday, hovering just under the 1163.00 buy signal with no new information..
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 15.35-15.45 avoided the shallow dip needed to stretch the rubber band so it could snap back up and launch a rally. Without snapping back up from a blip-down, there is room to at least 15.85 before even beginning to suggest momentum is reversing up.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The Greece news after Thursday”s close gave the intraday drop to 150-16 a steroid injection that extended it down sharply. The week-old gap back to 149-07 was filled, and held. Back above 150-24 would signal momentum reversing back up.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging persisted for the fourth consecutive session, still not extending the decline, but also not yet reversing it back above 54.30.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s “pivotal reversal” extended higher immediately to gap up Friday, and to extend higher intraday, but still overlapping 2.77 resistance into the close..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 13 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s calendar is deceptively empty, and Tuesday isn”t much busier. But the rest of the week is very high-profile.
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2080.25 | 2073.25 |
| …would target | 2085.25 | 2078.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.00 | 2063.00 |
| …would target | 25064.50 | 2057.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Backing-and-filling.
Open”s slide gained no traction.
The open”s blip-up touched 2069.75 resistance and reacted back down to the 2065.50 preliminary indication. Still overlapping it at 9:45 prevented identifying whether new buying sponsorship was being attracted. That didn”t prevent probing lower since then to to 2059.50.
But it did suggest that probing lower would be the temporary. At least one early element suggests that, too — the first reaction down was retraced by only 38.2% before triggering the 2065.50 sell signal. Reversing down from a 61.8% bounce would have required strong-handed sellers.
Indications of impatient sellers means that buyers are patient. At least, relatively patient. In fact,the reaction up from 2059.50 is fulfilling expectations for being sudden, steep and substantial, already testing 2067.50.
Exiting the bias environment above 2068.00 could extend higher this afternoon to test 2072.50 and 2076.00. But that”s not yet required. Little is, until there”s more visibility on acceptance of the latest Greece bailout proposal,