Posts by Rod David
Not taking “yes” for an answer.
Positive territory”s attraction becomes resistance.
Probing above the 2062.50 10:15 high extended without little hesitation to 2070.50. But the balance of the bias environment dipped back down to 2061.00. The noon hour has ranged sideways up to 2065.00.
Thursday and Friday”s closes are essentially 2066.00-2067.00. Exiting the bias environment under them indicated that the morning”s buyers didn”t gain traction for their effort.
That doesn”t prevent retesting the morning”s high. Overbought RSIs there require it eventually. And this morning”s 2072.25 objective remains outstanding.
But beginning the next upleg from under 2066.00-2067.00 would make a fresh high vulnerable to reversing back down. A reversal down could be avoided by triggering this afternoon”s 2067.00 bias-up signal, or by delaying a break higher until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30.
Regardless of any unfinished business above, nothing prevents extending the dip without any fresh high.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 7 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Last week”s Employment Situation report is a filter through which Tuesday”s JOLTS will be viewed. It”s the day”s only influential report, in a week that becomes a lot higher-profile for its next three days.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.50 | 2067.00 |
| …would target | 2079.75 | 2072.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2064.25 | 2056.75 |
| …would target | 1058.75 | 2051.25 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Stop me if you’ve heard this one.
Complete post-open recovery of Sunday night”s plunge.
The overnight recovery up to 2059.25 was retraced pre-open down to 2048.75. Bouncing through the open reacted down initially to 2049.25, but recovered 2053.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to make the 2058.25 bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.
In fact, 2062.50 was being tested at 10:15, triggering no-bias. Rejecting tests of both bias-down parameters — including the 2050.50 bias-down target — put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, 2066.00 and 2072.25.
That can be invalidated. It”s too late to trigger, but back under the 2058.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would negate whatever was signaled by recovering it through 10:15. That door remains open since the pre-open and post-open dips did stop optimistically short of their prior support. Exceeding the 2062.50 high made before 10:15 would undermine sellers.
The overnight recovery peaked at
The overnight recovery peaked at 24 points, reacting back down 9-1/2 points from 2058.25. An opening print above last week”s 2046.75-2047.50 lows would be a rally”s best chance, more so after recovering from a post open probe under those lows, and especially after converting that brief post-open dip into a fresh post-open high. All by 9:45… Last week”s lows need not break lower quickly to make overnight lows any likelier to be retested. Expending too much energy through the open avoiding last week”s lows, without also extending higher, would be ineffectual optimism — and potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvvyrhk