Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Deja vu, all over again
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s reaction to the pre-open Employment report surged to 2079.00, but failed to trigger bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2062.25 bias-down signal was fulfilled at the noon hour”s low. The close had recovered 2070.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Globex holiday trading through Friday”s noon hour dipped to 2063.25, putting into play 2058.00. Small potatoes. Sunday night”s open reacted to Greece”s no-vote by gapping down to 2034.25, off 34-35 points from Thursday”s close. Almost duplicating last Sunday night”s gap down, price action since then has trended up relentlessly. The plunge has been cut by two-thirds to test 2059.00 — where last Sunday night”s open had gapped down.
If, then…
Will this Sunday night”s plunge recovery continue duplicating last Sunday night”s reaction by resolving back down after Monday”s open? There is no requirement to retest last night”s open, which was not complex, so it is not a “new Globex trend extreme” that otherwise would require intraday retest. And having tested the next lower objective to 2040.25, there is no other “unfinished business below.” Not currently. Gapping open within last week”s range above 2046.75 can avoid creating a gap wanting to be filled from above. Recovering positive territory through the open could extend higher through the morning. But not already rallying out of the open would start making an intraday test of 2040.25 likely.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2062.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2066.00 would be likely to trigger the bias-up signal at 10:15, which is also 2066.00. Exiting the open at 9:45 back under 2053.25 would be likely to trigger the 2058.25 bias-down signal. And exiting the open under 2047.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2050.50 bias-down target at 10:15.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2074.00 | 2066.00 |
| …would target | 2080.25 | 2072.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2066.25 | 2058.25 |
| …would target | 2058.50 | 2050.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jul 6 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s post-open ISM release has a reliable track record for influencing price action. The session”s other reports don”t, but any surprise on a Monday will have an effect.
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
“Oxi.” It”s Greek for, “Adios,
“Oxi.” It”s Greek for, “Adios, Euro.” Sunday”s referendum was decisive, and the Euro has reacted back down to last week”s lows. Monitor it overnight along with the ES in the chaRTroom at either link below:
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Globex trades today through 1:00pm
Globex trades today through 1:00pm ET. Not much has been happening. Firming initially overnight about 3 points was reversed temporarily 6 points, essentially ranging 3 points either way around 2069… I”m not in front of the screens consistently today, but hope to comment if/as needed… Have a safe and happy Independence Day!
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