Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jul 6 2015… Still waters?
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
Percentages of stocks above and below rolling 4-week moving averages were essentially unchanged again. Beneath the surface last week, quite a few issues required calculating lower supports. Not this week. Perhaps it has something to do with the shorter week? There”s only a 20% chance of that. Perhaps July intends to stand out.
Meanwhile, one of last week”s highlighted issues, TAUG, is off the table. It immediately dipped a little further, and although that hasn”t extended, neither has it been rejected. But the other highlighted issue, MDBX, may be trying to form a near-term correction.
Add VAPE to this list, which surged soon after discussing it during Livestox, but has yet to trade after releasing news post-close of an offering. TRTC remains on-watch for briefly probing a fresh low, and GWPH has not tried recovering its reaction down from fulfilling the rally”s target.
Here”s the current levels:
| Marijuana Stock Universe for July 6, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 9 | 8.91% |
| trends* | # flat: | 15 | 14.85% |
| # down: | 77 | 76.24% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.008 | 0.022 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.180 | 0.385 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.044 | 0.102 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 11.375 | 12.750 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.029 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.008 | 0.015 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC (axxu) | 0.037 | 0.140 | down |
| ENDO | 0.016 | 0.025 | up |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.360 | 4.140 | flat |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 32.450 | 39.600 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.022 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.116 | 0.171 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MDRM | 0.032 | 0.061 | up |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.063 | 0.080 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | flat |
| NDEV | 0.040 | 0.165 | down |
| NMUS | 1.220 | 3.200 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| NTRR | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.110 | 0.163 | down |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.107 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.058 | down |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.064 | 0.157 | down |
| TRTC | 0.090 | 0.180 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.315 | 0.470 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO | 0.300 | 0.480 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.002 | 0.007 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.820 | 1.160 | flat |
Thursday”s drop satisfied all available
Thursday”s drop satisfied all available selling pressure. Probing above the 2074 bias-up signal without triggering it had put into play a test of the 2062.25 bias-down signal. The afternoon”s low. touched it. Selling pressure was satisfied.
Did buyers exploit that? While the balance of the afternoon eventually bounced, the range”s 2069.25 upper-end held as resistance. Held multiple tests as resistance. Rather than exploit the neutralized sellers, and despite multiple opportunities, the range”s upper-end held. Buyers did not regain control.
There wasn”t much expected of Thursday afternoon”s low-volume environment, anyway. Breaking lower was still possible, and would have been somewhat productive down to at least 2058. Recovering back above 2062.25 from testing 2058 could have formed a very durable near-term bottom. The market likely would have done this, if its intent were to bottom.
Extending down, now, would not have the grace of a swan dive that was possible Thursday afternoon. More likely, extending down would form a gap down at Friday”s open. Resuming Wednesday”s rally above Thursday”s pre-open highs would similarly not be reliable for extending higher without beginning forcibly. But its pay-offf would be new highs.
More details were discussed in the post-market Wrap, its recording linked below.
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Pre-close view…The case of the missing volume.
It”s no mystery. Weekend illiquidity has taken hold.
The 2062.25 objective of this morning”s bias parameter was fulfilled at the afternoon”s low. Touching it bounced back into the relatively narrow 2063.00-2065.00 range that had begun developing during the noon hour. Ranging sideways even more narrowly for nearly an hour then began trending into the final hour.
That trending was up. And the trending extended to test 2069.25, which would have been the target of a bounce during the bias environment instead of after.
In either case, bouncing was less the product of buyers, and due more to sellers having been satisfied. One end of the range reacted to the other end.
Now a reaction down is threatening to extend. Almost any selling pressure back under 2066.00 is likely to become a lot of selling pressure down to 2060.50 or 2058.00. Meanwhile, not increasing selling pressure here would be vulnerable simply to drifting higher into the close.
Livestox, Jul 2 2015
The beginning of Livestox spends considerable time reviewing the market”s big picture, and also describing the setup in Gold and precious metals generally. Crude Oil is also discussed. Following are the stocks that were reviewed, as well.
SPX
GLD
SLV
GDX
USO
TAUG
MDBX
TRTC
CARA
GWPH
EXMT
ERBB
VAPE
SRNA
FOLD
INSY
PPCH
AERO
GTLS
Daily Spot… Gold hits its big target
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1110 bounce limit held Thursday, so reversing the trend up would now require closing above 1.1155. Otherwise, 1.0910 down to 1.0855 is in-play.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday”s s Employment Situation report was greeted already testing the longstanding 1158.50 target. A blip down to 1156.00 reacted up sharply to 1168.00 before ranging sideways into the close. There is no buy signal, and at least a retest of 1158.50 is likely, regardless of the resolution.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows were avoided during the past week fresh — or, at least confirming a break lower — while gold met its target. None of which is a buy signal, but makes the pattern vulnerable to leveraging buying pressure.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday morning”s reaction the Employment Situation report blipped down to touch 147-26. That”s a 61.8% proxy retracement of last Friday”s range, whose gap back to its 147-16 should still be filled.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Thursday off of 56.85 — support that had held Wednesday”s low — bounced to 57.75 resistance. Resistance held, and its reaction down attacked 56.85. Closing above Thursday”s 57.95 high would end the decline and above 58.35 would reverse the trend up. The drop”s momentum otherwise remains intact.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.83 Thursday extended sharply higher to 2.89, filling the week-old gap back up to 2.86. Neutralizing its attraction above enabled a dip back to 2.83 as support. Closing above 2.83 requires extending higher aggressively without delay, to prove that filling the gap back up to 2.86 didn”t neutralize all remaining upside attractions.