Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down continued Wednesday to fulfill the 1.1065 target. The next lower objective is a retest of Sunday night”s low in the 1.100 area. Closing back above 1.1110 would suggest the pullback has ended.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Remaining under pressure Wednesday morning only attacked Tuesday”s low, but the 1158.50 target remains intact.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Whether or not Tuesday”s breakout low was confirmed by a lower close Wednesday, holding above Tuesday”s intraday low made the confirmation less than optimal.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight plunge to test 148-20 confirmed Monday”s gap up had gained no traction while a fresh low remained likely before any other resolution would be credible. This pattern tends to extend by gapping, making an overnight slide likely.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday to the 58.70 sell signal trended down sharply into the afternoon to fresh lows at 56.85 support. Extending deeper would likely test 55.35, but closing back above 57.75 would signal that the break would not extend and could still launch a sudden reaction up.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s recovery to 2.83 resistance was probed momentarily by 1 penny at Wednesday”s open, but only to reverse down to probe 1 penny under 2.77 support. The extended range isn”t narrowing, so its first breakout would still be credible for extending intraday in that direction.
Down the up staircase.
Session-long rally is inverting.
Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s high formed a session-long rally setup. Not maintaining the gap up through the open would not have triggered the setup. It was maintained.
Maintained, but not extended. The bias environment wasn”t exited above the first hour”s range. That would not necessarily have been bearish. But exiting the bias environment UNDER the first hour”s range is active rejection.
It”s still possible that the morning bias environment”s dip be the session”s lone counter-trend timing window. Of course, that would require the noon hour to probe above the bias environment”s high. However, now having elapsed more than 61.8%, the noon hour is probing fresh lows.
An inverted setup is as bearish as it could have been bullish. And since the session-long setup appeared in a pattern that was otherwise targeting fresh lows for the week, that”s the minimum objective.
Triggering the 2062.00 bias-down signal at 1:20 — now being tested to within 3 ticks — would help to confirm the trend has reversed down. Meanwhile, rallying would be suspicious until recovering at least 2070.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 2 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday moved the monthly Employment Situation report forward one day. It is the highest-profile event of the week. Reaction could be exacerbated by the pre-holiday low-volume environment. Reaction to it could be muted by its competition with Greece headlines.
**Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2080.75 | 2072.50 |
| …would target | 2087.25 | 2079.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.25 | 2062.00 |
| …would target | 2063.00 | 2054.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… More heavy-lifting required.
Gap up maintained, but not yet extended.
Having trended down into yesterday”s close, maintaining the gap up above yesterday afternoon”s 2066.00 high has formed a “session-long rally.” Only one intraday timing window should fail to probe its prior timing window”s high.
That doesn”t prevent dipping down, but dipping from a position of strength is likely to be recovered. That premise usually isn”t put to the test. Today is a little different with the higher-profile events surrounding Greece.
In fact, Greece PM Tspiras just thew cold water on calls to cancel this weekend”s referendum, triggering an 8-point plunge that pierced 2066.00 by 3 ticks. The premise hasn”t passed the test — bouncing initially up to 2070.25 has reacted back down to fresh lows at 2063.50.
Until probing above the bias timing window”s 2074.50 high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2067.75 bias timing window”s low would invert the session-long rally setup.
Usually during a session-long rally, the noon hour is the one timing window not to probe a prior timing window”s high. If it is this morning”s bias environment is an exception, then the door to inverting the setup would swing open wider
Back above 2068.25-2069.00 would again suggest the press conference”s threats have been absorbed. Back under 2065.75 would suggest the session-long rally is inverting down.