Posts by Rod David
The Greece news had triggered
The Greece news had triggered a surge to test and retest 2077.25. Its reaction down to test 2069 has been retested while consolidating back to 2073. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon”s 2066 high is getting likelier as the open is getting closer. Then, the post-open question would be whether the gap up will be maintained to form a session-long rally, or rejected for new lows. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjztmwm
The First Trade… Greece headline battle outdoes itself. Bravo.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday was reversed down immediately. The overnight rally, to 2069.00 was retraced into the noon hour, piercing Monday”s 2047.50 low. The afternoon”s no-bias rally to 2066.00 retraced to 2062.00 as was required, and even deeper down to 2052.50 by the cash session close. Spiking down into the futures close touched 2049.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.
Overnight action”s new info…
Similar to Tuesday night, firming overnight evolved into a rally. A consolidation up to 2066.00 got welcome news from reports that Greece has offered significant concessions, triggering a surge to test and retest 2077.25. That has been retraced to attack 2069.00, amid reports that Germany isn”t talking while Greece”s referendum remains scheduled, and ahead of a live television address by Greece”s Prime Minister.
If, then…
The cycles of rally and retracement were becoming shorter and shallower, compressing price to the point of almost literally exploding in one direction or the other. Breaking higher first is not bullish for the bigger picture. It leaves “unfinished business below” that will require eventual retest, while neutralizing the overbought RSIs” attraction above that otherwise would suggest sellers were weak-handed. Nevertheless for the near-term, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon”s high could form a “session-long rally” setup. Could. But not maintaining the gap up would be as bearish as the setup could have been bearish, probably reversing to new lows intraday.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45above 2068.75-2070.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2065.75 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2059.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.50 bias-up signal at 10:15, probably putting into play an offsetting test of the 2050.75 bias-down signal.
Tuesday afternoon”s no-bias environment was
Tuesday afternoon”s no-bias environment was formed by recovering from probing under the 2049.50 bias-down signal in time to trigger “no-bias.” An offsetting test of the 2062 bias-up signal wasn”t required, but it would be required to define the bias environment”s upper-end if tested. In fact, probing 4 points above it was retraced to exit the bias environment back under 2062.
It might seem that the no-bias rally accomplished nothing, since its rejection extended down even deeper back to 2053 support. Actually, overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs accompanied the 2066 high, requiring its eventual retest. Attracting price higher overnight could gap up above Tuesday afternoon”s high to form a “session-long rally” setup.
Meanwhile, the sequence of rally and retracement has become more aggressive. Sunday night”s rally into Monday”s open had spent the day retracing, but Monday night”s rally was retraced into the noon hour. There was time for another failed bounce before the close. Probing fresh lows intraday seems unavoidable without gapping up.
Then there is the 3-day weekend indicator, like WedEX. Still probing fresh lows into Wednesday”s close, or else rallying sharply, would be likely to trend in that direction through Thursday”s Employment Situation report and into the holiday.
Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmmfswv
Monitor overnight Globex action in the chaRTroom:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/911-933-375
xp UNfriendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2068.75 | 2060.50 |
| …would target | 2074.00 | 2065.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2059.00 | 2050.75 |
| …would target | 2053.75 | 2045.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Same old, same old.
No new sponsorship to the bounce.
Holding the test of this afternoon”s 2049.50 bias-down signal at 1:20 didn”t require an offsetting test of the 2062.00 bias-up signal. That setup is a morning requirement. In the no-bias environment, bias signals need only define the range”s ends.
So, it wasn”t required, but the bias environment began rallying .It probed the bias-up signal by 4 points. That was “no-bias trending” which required being retraced back to its 2062.00 bias-up signal.
Often, the consequence of no-bias trending a visit to the 1:20 print, too. That”s 2051.50, and it has been attacked to within almost 2 points. Reaching it and then extending down would target new session lows. There is otherwise no rally target.