Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Lose the froth.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday night”s weakness was recovered back up to unchanged at 1.1250 where intraday selling could probe under the overnight low. Then Monday night”s low was probed on the way down to Monday”s 1.1125 intraday low. The setup”s target is a deeper reaction down to 1.1065, so long as 1.1250 now holds as resistance.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping back down Tuesday helped to confirm that Monday”s test of 1183.70 resistance had held the corrective bounce. Gapping down Tuesday under 1175.00 support to a fresh low at 1165.40 was retraced aggressively, but only temporarily as the close tried resuming the decline.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sliding to fresh lows under 15.45 Tuesday morning reacted up sharply above 15.80, but only momentarily before dipping to a new low close..
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday”s probe above Monday”s 151-04 intraday high was attacked Sunday night”s 151-22 high. Still overlapping Monday”s close prevented the confirmation of a second consecutive higher close. Back under 150-08 would start to signal momentum reversing back down
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s intraday rally attacked 59.75. Extending above 60.20 would be likely to extend up sharply, targeting 63.15.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s recovery from 2.77 back up to 2.83 was retraced again to retest 2.77 support. And that was again recovered back up to 2.83 which must be recovered through the close to launch a new rally leg.
The cycles accelerated.
Today”s sellers already accomplished what took all day Monday.
Sunday night”s recovery wasn”t likely to be rejected before the open. But any immediate post-open attempt to extend higher was dangerous. In fact, the post-open uptrend reached its target, and then reversed back down. The consequence of that was to retrace the entire recovery back to its origin at Sunday night”s low.
Today”s setup was similar, with similar consequences. But today”s execution is faster.
No post-open up trending was necessary. Instead, the reaction down from overnight highs had been retraced 61.8% pre-open. Price trended down from the opening tick. The consequence was the same, to retest overnight lows. This took almost all of yesterday”s session, but it was fulfilled today during the noon hour.
Now the deck is clear for new sponsorship. That means changing the slope of trending, but not necessarily in the opposite direction. The descent can steepen its slope instead of reversing it.
New sponsorship.need not appear simply because the deck is clear for it. This afternoon”s 2049.50 bias-down signal didn”t trigger at 1:20. But 2053.00 held as resistance, so fresh lows through 1:30 would be credible for extending down anyway.
Narrow ranging at 2049.50-2053.00 would be attracted down after the bias environment to test 2045.50 and 2043.75. It would be vulnerable to plunging into the close. Otherwise, it”s difficult to trust any bounce short of recovering 2059.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This being Employment Situation week (which comes Thursday due to the holiday), the focus turns to jobs reports. ADP tends to influence price action, while revealing something of the market”s sentiment. And its reaction tends to be repeated on any high-profile post-open report — which would apply to the ISM number.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
**ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US Payroll to Population
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.25 | 2062.00 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2067.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2057.75 | 2049.50 |
| …would target | 2052.00 | 2043.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Reconditioning those overnight optimists.
Second consecutive overnight rally is rejected.
The pre-open uptick touched yesterday morning”s 2068.50 bias environment low, and began reversing down sharply at the open 1 minute later.
Yesterday afternoon”s ~2060.75 bias environment high was still being overlapped at 9:45. That didn”t qualify as gapping up above it, or as rejecting the gap up above it. The potential “session-long rally” and the potential for its rejection are moot.
Meanwhile, the post-open reaction down extended to 2055.50. A consolidation has formed just under this morning”s 2059.00 bias-up target. Exceeding it through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal. Its renewed target is met already, but that would have undermined sellers.
Still, this is a bias-up environment. Or, is it? Whatever was indicated by recovering the 2053.00 bias-up signal through 10:15 can be negated by breaking under it through 10:30. Otherwise, its support should define the next hour”s lower-end if tested.