Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not rejecting but hovering Thursday at the 1.1400 resistance tested by Wednesday’s rally suggests that a low is forming, and that pullbacks will likely recover to fresh highs.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s surge tried overnight to extend higher but spent Thursday hovering around the surge’s highs, keeping alive potential for dropping back under 1220.50 to resume the decline.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat but choppy ranging Thursday didn’t confirm Wednesday’s surge as having gained traction, so almost any initial weakness Friday would be likely to extend down intraday.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already more than one session beyond the 139-22 sell signal being rendered moot, rallying Wednesday night probed fresh highs. Which also reinstates the 139-22 sell signal if triggered — which Thursday’s reaction down from gapping up is threatening to attack.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An aggressive blip-down to fresh lows into Thursday’s open was recovered back up into the range above last Friday’s close to continue forming a bottom. Reacting back up to Wednesday’s highs is threatening to launch a rally leg by closing any higher.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength that enabled its reaction down to hold a test of the 4.44 buy signal, recovering to test the 4.63 confirmation and resume the rally targeting fresh highs above 5.00.
Mid-day Update… Sitting pretty.
Holding recovery to fresh post-open highs.
This morning’s dip to at least test the 2727.75 bias-down target ultimately probed it 4-1/2 points lower.
Nevertheless, its test was isolated — the 10:15 2736.00 print and the 10:30 2739.25 print were recovered as the bias environment lapsed from 11:30-noon.
Its buyers were rewarded by probing fresh session highs up to 2742.00. And now the market awaits the 2:00 FOMC Minutes.
The minimum likely reward is to probe above yesterday’s 2745.00 high. Hesitation can be considered as pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, and could contribute to probing well above yesterday’s high. Having said that, an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down has room to retest 2727.75 before suggesting a deeper pullback may be underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Fed speaker is close enough to the open to be an influence. The post-open PMI tends to influence price action when released privately to its institutional subscribers, and that price reaction tends to extend or repeat when released publicly several minutes later.
John Williams Speaks
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.50 | 2741.00 |
| …would target | 2746.75 | 2747.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2730.25 | 2730.75 |
| …would target | 2724.75 | 2725.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Is it, or isn’t it?
Bias-down avoided at the very last second.
The open’s 5-point was relatively narrow within 2734.00-2739.00, especially compared to the two prior sessions. 
But it was overlapping the 2734.75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, which lapsed at 2729.25…
Or, did it lapse at 2740.00? The 11-point difference is the spike up triggered by a Trump China trade tweet. Bias already wasn’t clean, but the tweet prevented a “clean” late bias-down.
Being a tweet reaction, we anticipated its retracement. We also discounted its influence. We also noted that a trade already underway hadn’t violated its bounce limit’s first 3-4 minutes. And now fresh lows are testing this morning’s 2727.75 bias-down target.
The trade already underway was targeting a couple of ticks lower, which is also fulfilled — down to 2725.25. RSIs are avoiding oversold territory, which is NOT a buy signal, but which also allows a buy signal to be very productive.
The nearest buy signal currently is back above 2731.25, preferably triggered this morning to exit the bias environment in rally mode. Continuing lower would still have potential down to 2707.00 (i.e. 2701.50-2708.50), if only to absorb the tweet’s reverberations.