Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2745.25 | 2745.75 |
| …would target | 2750.75 | 2751.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2737.00 | 2737.50 |
| …would target | 2731.00 | 2731.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Isolated sellers.
Overnight dip recovers before the open.
Sideways ranging at yesterday’s late 2737.50 low didn’t break lower overnight until Europe’s opens. Then it broke a lot lower, touching what is this morning’s 2729.25 bias-down target. 
I noted in the First Trade blog post and during the Market Tour that any remaining potential for a morning rally largely depended on that being the low.
More so, the open would need to be greeted in rally mode.
Soon bouncing off of 2729.25 spiked up to 2740.00 on China trade headlines. The open was greeted at what is this morning’s 2736.75 bias-down signal. A quick blip-down held 2734.00 support before resuming the pre-open recovery.
After holding a test of the bias-down signal, triggering no-bias put into play an offsetting test of the 2744.75 bias-up signal. It was tested on the way up to 2748.50 — which is resistance from yesterday’s rally. It’s also no-bias trending, since the bias signal should define the window’s range if tested.
A dip to at least 2744.75 is required (now being tested). Resuming the rally is also likely, and likely to extend higher, whether to test this morning’s 2751.00 bias-up target or to retest yesterday’s highs. Neither of which is required, but the burden of proof is on sellers.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Traction giving way.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday night’s shallow slide had tested 2729.00 at its late low. Bouncing to 2740.00 in reaction to a Trump/China trade tweet was reversed to probe fresh lows attacking 2723.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its entry isolated the probe, and reversed momentum up to greet the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes just under Wednesday 2745.00 high. Its reaction up to 2-week old highs at 2754.50 was retraced entirely as the final hour dipped back under the noon hour’s 2742.00 high to test the afternoon bias environment’s 2738.00 low.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday’s late low supported a sideways narrowing range developed into Europe’s opens. Then support gave way. Trending to fresh lows has just touched what is this morning’s 2729.25 bias-down target.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Thursday’s rally gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. Closing any lower — back under the bias environment’s low instead of just testing it — would have invalidated the upside traction. Unless the open has also retraced Thursday morning’s low, retesting Thursday’s high is still possible this morning — if not also trending above it. The overnight dip isn’t helping that bullish setup, and the bias-down target test could be the line in the sand that shifts post-open trending back down. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2734.75 would be likely to trigger the 2736.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2741.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2744.25 | 2744.75 |
| …would target | 2750.50 | 2751.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2736.25 | 2736.75 |
| …would target | 2728.75 | 2729.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday night’s relentless downtrending to test 2729.00 was relatively shallow. 
But it still formed a common setup that is vulnerable to forming a substantive low. That could have developed during the open, but for Trump/China trade tweet that triggered a spike up to 2741.00.
The spike was retraced almost as quickly as it had developed, and continued lower to attack 2723.00. Exiting the bias environment back above its entry isolated the lower probe. The delayed effect was the same, launching a rally up to 2754.50, probing 2-week old highs.
The final hour’s dip retraced back under the noon hour’s 2742.00 high and tested the afternoon bias environment’s 2738.00 low. Closing any lower would have invalidated the traction gained by having exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high and entering the final hour even higher. Retesting Thursday’s high is likely Friday morning — if not also trending above it — so long as a deeper pullback is avoided, or at least erased before the open. Extending the rally would next target 2768.00-2770.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.