Posts by Rod David
And, exhale…
Narrow morning range breaks lower into another narrow range.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility trended down from its 2111.00 open to 2107.00. That was retraced entirely back up to 2111.00, but never any higher. And not for lack of trying, as price held up through the bias environment.
Then the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. The change in character was obvious immediately. Price plunged to fresh session lows into the noon hour, touching 2105.25.
Influence of the open”s downtrend can be rejected by exiting the bias environment at 1:20 back above its 2111.00 opening print. That would re-open the door to a bullish WedEX influence. But any lower would be difficult to recover, let alone to stop trending down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s calendar is very busy, but that can make its reports more influential than their track records might otherwise indicate. Probably not the pre-open Fed survey, but the post-open housing sector report — especially if it reads higher than the recent record.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2120.50 | 2112.50 |
| …would target | 2126.00 | 2118.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2112.25 | 2104.25 |
| …would target | 2107.25 | 2099.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Blip blapped.
Pre-open rally effort rejected by drop under overnight lows.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility trended down. That”s not predictive on any day other than expiration. And it predicts a downtrending session. It can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back above the 2111.00 opening print.
Not invalidating the open would undermine the afternoon”s bullish WedEX. The two cannot coexist. Invalidating the bearish open would reinforce a bullish afternoon.
Meanwhile, this is a late no-bias environment. The bias-down signal was still being overlapped at 10:15, and avoided triggering by fewer than 3 ticks at 10:30. That”s not entirely reliable for targeting an offsetting test of the 2116.25 bias-up signal.
This being a late no-bias, an interim dip to fresh lows cannot be precluded, especially not before probing fresh post-open highs above 2110.75-2111.50.
Overnight action had initially ranged
Overnight action had initially ranged narrowly sideways. The rally it launched up to 2117.75 consolidated there until just before we began this morning”s pre-market Tour. Then price began diving, soon retracing back within the overnight narrow range.at 2111.75.
Just holding 2112.50 at the open would make post-open trending credible. Originating a rally from any lower could still extend, but probably not directly. So, quickly recovering 2114.75 is more likely to be confirmed above 2116.25 as extending higher, but delaying a bounce to 2114.75 would find its resistance to be more challenging.
Trending down today would all but require trending down through the opening 15 minutes. Here”s more detail in the Tour”s recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfvbsm