Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jun 22 2015… The weak grow weaker.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
There was a miniscule change in this week”s percentages of stocks above or below their 4-week moving averages. Frankly, I was surprised the delta was so low. But that”s how it netted out, after adjusting several stocks downward for abandoning their recent surges, and adjusting a couple upward for recently surging.
Death by 999 cuts.
News doesn”t seem to have been bearish for the sector”s fundamentals. Perhaps the most bearish observation to make is that one of the two original institutionally-qualified equities has evaporated almost entirely. Not GWPH but MDBX. It”s the only component to have threatened* triple-digits (to the left of the decimal point).
MDBX could be the sector”s poster child, if it weren”t already occupied being its canary. It peaked at 93.50 on January 8, 2014 just after a CNBC segment featured them. *The stock had traded 215 in November 2012, but I don”t consider that in my sector analysis since the “sector” had limited components.
Anyway, a more common effect of rotation out of leadership is to benefit laggards. But MDBX has led the way down. And now, the other original GWPH large-cap has been joined by a later entry, INSY. A universe of two is too small for concocting reliable conclusions, but one cannot help but notice that both are on the sector”s medicinal side, as opposed to recreational.
INSY just began reaping the rewards of its stock split, surging to new highs. GWPH is currently challenged by a test of 117-120 support whose break is being delayed by outstanding potential to first print 132. Will their eventual corrections see capital rotate into the sector”s lagging medicinal players? I suspect that will be our focus in The Universe sooner, rather than later.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for June 22 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 10.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 15 | 15.00% |
| # down: | 75 | 75.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.008 | 0.022 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.360 | 0.570 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| AXXU | 0.037 | 0.140 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.044 | 0.102 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.410 | 0.580 | down |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 10.750 | 12.000 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.027 | 0.038 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.530 | 0.750 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGPD | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.013 | 0.020 | up |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENDO | 0.016 | 0.025 | up |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| CAFS | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.360 | 4.140 | flat |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 37.350 | 42.300 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.022 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.140 | 0.290 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MDRM | 0.032 | 0.061 | down |
| MINE | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.072 | 0.100 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | flat |
| NDEV | 0.040 | 0.165 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| NTRR | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.023 | 0.033 | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.110 | 0.163 | down |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | down |
| PZOO | 0.011 | 0.017 | flat |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.008 | 0.016 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.141 | 0.230 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.050 | 0.067 | down |
| TAUG | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| THCZ | 0.064 | 0.157 | down |
| TRTC | 0.090 | 0.180 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | down |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.415 | 0.715 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.030 | 0.090 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO | 0.300 | 0.480 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.002 | 0.007 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.820 | 1.160 | flat |
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.25 | 2106.25 |
| …would target | 2119.50 | 2111.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2105.00 | 2097.25 |
| …would target | 2097.50 | 2089.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Friday”s expiration session trended down
Friday”s expiration session trended down throughout. Yet, it was an “inside day,” contained entirely with Thursday”s range. And since Thursday trended up, Friday”s downward bias tends to be contratrend. The setup resembles Wednesday”s noon hour sell-off ahead FOMC”s statement, which reacted up sharply.
Another similarity to Wednesday is their lows. The pre-FOMC drop had touched support at the afternoon”s bias-down signal, literally expending as much selling pressure as was possible without gaining traction for the effort. Friday afternoon”s drop had potential to 2097.50, and that was its last minute low. In fact, post-close action has bounced back to 2100.
Nothing is perfectly identical, and there is one big difference between the two setups. Wednesday”s low was mid-day and mid-week. Bottom-fishers can be attracted if they have plenty of time to manage a bad entry. Friday”s low was at the very end of it all — not rallying (gapping up!) sharply on Monday would be vulnerable to doubling Friday”s drop.
Meanwhile, there is a question whether the late bullish WedEX failed, or inverted. The expiration open”s downtrend had initially undermined the setup, although the door remained open to reinstating it. If WedEX was actually inverted to be bearish, and Friday performed appropriately, then Monday morning would be likely to trend down, too. Whether from opening flat, higher or lower, post-open action is vulnerable to trending back down through the morning.
There”s no Saturday Review this weekend, but here”s Friday”s post-market Review:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkzkrs
Pre-close view… Expiration egress.
Sellers gaining traction on an inside day.
Thursday”s range has yet to be probed in either direction, and might not be. That would make today an “inside day.” An inside day”s bias tends to be counter-trend. More so,an artificially influenced bias (e.g. expiration).
We”ll continue that discussion later.
Meanwhile, the afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2:30 under the noon hour”s range, and the final hour was entered lower. Sellers gained traction for their efforts. The 3:10-3:20 timing window probed fresh lows, too — down to 2101.00 — but not durably.
Oversold RSIs make the drop vulnerable to reacting up, which can be exacerbated by the fast-approaching two-weekend”s illiquidity. Back above 2104.00 would start to signal a short-squeeze underway, albeit doomed to failure. Otherwise, the next lower attractions are 2099.25 and 2097.25.
Daily Spot… Bond bouncis back.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday was unlikely to trend down durably, since Thursday”s gap up above all prior highs would like to be filled regardless of the eventual resolution. In fact, the gap back to Thursday”s 1.1380 close was filled. All requirements for higher closes have been fulfilled.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday morning”s price action was confined within Thursday”s narrow post-open range, neither extending nor confirming its break, but also not yet rejecting it.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s reaction down from the upper-end of its 16.15-16.35 range to its lower-end was followed by a spike down Friday morning that recovered back up to 16.15. There is no active signal.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s thorough retest of 149-16 avoided closing under it, satisfying all influential selling pressure. That did not equate to a buy signal, which would trigger above 150-10. But its recovery overnight gapped up into Friday”s open and surged to probe 151-25 resistance that had contained the week”s prior highs. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would prevent retesting the 150-00 area.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding Thursday”s test of 60.70 resistance and stopping short of the 61.20 buy signal didn”t equate to being a sell signal. But Friday”s open gapped down and the session ranged choppily sideways.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Slightly lower lows at Friday”s open quickly filled the gap back to 2.74 before reversing back up into positive territory to test 2.82 resistance, whose recovery would resume the rally.