Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Entrenched.
Doubly-renewed bias-up on a session-long rally.
The opening 15 minutes maintained its gap up above Friday afternoon”s 2109.00 prior high, forming a “session-long rally” setup. Also maintained was the gap up above Friday”s entire pessimistic session. Rejecting its late plunge, its intraday downtrend, and its gap down is much more powerful.
In fact, the morning has trended up, probing last week”s high up to 2121.25. Each timing window of a session-long rally should probe its prior timing window high, with one exception. That”s usually the noon hour, which will soon come within view.
The 2121.00 area is credible for a near-term peak. So is the timing, and RSIs aren”t overbought. Back under 2118.50 would start to signal a corrective dip targeting 2114.50 and potentially 2111.75.
But until the 2120.00 pullback limit is violated, the trend remains up and targeting new highs above 2125.00.
Reacting down nearly 7 points
Reacting down nearly 7 points from the 2118 overnight high reacted up once to 2115 before failing. Now a second low attacking 2110 has reacted up again, this time to test 2117. Gapping up above Friday afternoon”s 2109 high seems easy, so forming a “session-long rally” setup seems assured.
All but assured. Optimally, a post-open dip would hold 2114.50 before resuming the recovery through overnight highs Trending down through the open under 2112.25 would start to undermine the recovery”s potential. Here”s detail in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkzkss
The First Trade… No deal is good deal?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s expiration session trended down through its opening 15 minutes, setting the session”s tone. Its gap open down to the 2111.00 area, broke lower into the noon hour, and trended down through the close. Wednesday”s air pocket above 2100.00 to above 2105.00 was retraced. A late sell signal triggered under 2103.50 and extended quickly to the afternoon”s lowest calculable target at 2097.25. The late bullish WedEX either inverted or invalidated.
Overnight action”s new info…
Despite no Greece deal over the weekend, Sunday night”s open gapped back up to 2103.50. Consolidating narrowly held Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 prior high. Rallying resumed before Europe”s opens, and extended to 2118.00. RSIs diverged negatively there and now a pullback is testing 2111.75 by a couple of ticks, taking RSIs oversold.
If, then…
The corrective bounce limit back to Thursday”s high is 2114.75-2116.25. Recovering it post-open would target a retest Thursday”s prior high. That happens to be only 3 points higher at 2119.25 in this pattern, and its room for noise isn”t much higher. But its recovery would imply much more than that, resuming last week”s rally targeting new highs. Having tested 2114.75-2116.25, reversing down from here would be credible for launching a new downleg triggered back under 2106.00 and targeting a retest last week”s lows under 2063.00. Two potential bullish setups this morning are the “session-long rally” which rejects the prior afternoon”s downtrending by gapping up above the prior afternoon”s high, and a more powerful rejection of Friday”s entire session by gapping up above its session highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2114.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by also exceeding the 2111.75 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2109.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal.
SPECIAL OVERNIGHT UPDATE: Sunday night”s
SPECIAL OVERNIGHT UPDATE:
Sunday night”s opening surge back to Friday afternoon”s high wasn”t an anomaly. It consolidated narrowly back down to 2106, then resumed rallying a couple of hours ago. Now 2115 is being attacked just minutes ahead of Europe”s opens. And RSIs are diverging negatively.
2115 is the lower-end of the 2114.75-2116.25 corrective bounce limit. Reversing down from here would be credible for launching a new downleg, but extending above 2116.25 would more likely retest Thursday”s prior high. That happens to be only 3 points higher at 2119.25 in this pattern, and its room for noise isn”t much higher. But its recovery would imply much more than that, resuming last week”s rally targeting new highs.
Another setup in-play is a “session-long rally” which rejects the prior afternoon”s downtrending, by gapping up above the prior afternoon”s high. Perhaps much more powerful would be to reject Friday”s entire session which had gapped down and trended down, by gapping up above its session highs. Those are bullish setups.
A substantial bearish setup remains possible. Hhaving fulfilled the 2114.50-2116.25 corrective bounce limit, breaking back under 2106 could resume Friday”s decline and retest last week”s lows under 2063. In other words, look out below if headlines don”t start aligning with price action”s suggestion that the Grexit can has been kicked further down the road.
chaRTroom links:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/631-222-546
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
In retrospect, it”s ironic that
In retrospect, it”s ironic that Greece got an extra day”s worth of funding Friday to cover bank runs. Five years of throwing good money after bad, but Friday”s one day of ELA was the best value yet — kicking the can for three days, due to the timing.
Was the extra day of funding intended to enable breathing room for Sunday”s creditor talks? Or, was limiting the extra funding meant to pressure negotiators, with another billion Euro in withdrawals already known? In the end, it seems not to have mattered. It is being reported that there are “no new proposals” on Greece, hence, no deal.
This seems to be coming as a relief. Sunday night”s Globex just gapped up to retrace all of Friday”s late 8-1/2 point slide. Our last sell signal at 2103.50 is now support of a surge to 2108.75. While it”s tempting to claim victory for expecting a relief rally when actual event finally came, keep in mind that Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 high is the real hurdle, as is Europe”s opens. And this follows Friday”s bearish afternoon bias that may similarly influence Monday morning.
Here are tonight”s links for front-row seats to watch the fireworks… Well, not exactly front row, but close enough to be just a little dangerous:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/631-222-546
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh