Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Auto-correct didn’t auto-resume.
Noon hour”s retracement has extended into the afternoon.
The noon hour is usually the one intraday timing window that doesn”t participate in the “session-long rally.” All other windows probe above their prior timing window”s high. One timing window usually does not, and it”s usually the noon hour.
Today”s noon hour did trend back down, and the noon hour does contain the low. So far, only the noon hour contains selling pressure.
But while the bias environment following it hasn”t extended down, neither has it recovered. The window hovered just a couple of points under the noon hour”s 2117.75 high for so long without touching it. Only now is 2117.75 being attacked to within 3 ticks, 20 minutes since the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.
The bias environment doesn”t finish lapsing until entering the final hour. Recovering 2117.75 by then would get the session-long rally back on track. Trending up further through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm, re-opening the door to fresh session highs.
Daily Spot… Gold’s glitter gone.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The retest of Thursday”s 1.1414 gap up was fulfilled Sunday night, and again intraday Monday. Closing above 1.1455 would start to signal the rally is extending to 1.1635. Closing first back under 1.1295 would trigger a new downleg.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having never confirmed Thursday”s gap up Friday, Sunday night”s drop back under the 1197.00 sell signal extended down sharply intraday to attack 1181.50. Breaking under it and under 1179.00 would confirm a test of 1158.50 is in-play.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The lower-end of the 16.15-16.35 resistance range was probed Monday, but only momentarily as the session essentially ranged around 16.15.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday and extending intraday to probe the prior highs above 151-25 was overly-optimistic despite Thursday having fulfilled any remaining downside attraction. Monday”s gap down to 150-22 and intraday slide filled the gap back down to Thursday”s 149-23 close. Closing back above 150-08 would signal that the recovery attempt was resuming.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Sunday night to attack 60.70 resistance was retraced to spend Monday back within Friday”s narrow range around 59.75. Back above 60.70 would now qualify again as a buy signal, confirmed above 61.20.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite having recovered Friday from filling the gap back down to 2.74, Monday”s open gapped back down to range 1-2 cents under it through the morning. Back above 2.77 would now qualify again as a buy signal, confirmed above 2.83.
Session-long non-decline.
Session-long rally signal may be preventing a reversal.
Having trended down into Friday”s close, gapping up above its 2109.00 afternoon high formed a “session-long rally” setup. Each timing window is expected to probe above the prior timing window, with one exception, which is usually the noon hour.
That template told us to more easily accept weakness during the noon hour, which triggered sell signals under 2119.50 and 2117.50, attacking 2112.00.
Now the template suggest the corrective dip is ended. But resuming the rally need not trend up aggressively.
session-long rally template expects only one timing window not to probe above its prior timing window high. Since the noon hour”s high is 2117.75, probing it during the next hour would qualify for the template. The morning”s 2122.00 high need not be revisited today.
Breaking under 2112.75 would start to suggest that more of this morning”s gap up would be retraced.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday”s pre-open Durable Goods report is high-profile with a track record for influencing price action. The post-open reports are less influential. But there is a tendency for the pre-open sentiment to repeat post-open, and the two housing sector reports are opportunities for that.
**Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2129.25 | 2121.00 |
| …would target | 2136.25 | 2128.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.50 | 2114.50 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2108.00 |
| Signal status: waiting LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.