Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Holding up is holding out.
Gap up extends too slowly to be reliable.
Buyers gained on traction for their effort yesterday. So, gapping up and extending higher through the open was the only durable path up.
Tuesday”s gap up to yesterday afternoon”s 2117.50 high ranged sideways into the top of the hour. Breaking higher to 2120.25 can”t seem to get away from the first half hour”s range.
This action doesn”t qualify as extending higher.
A rally effort could still probe higher, but only temporarily. This morning”s 2121.00 bias-up signal was attacked to within 3 ticks, but not touched. And it”s too late to trigger, so its test is otherwise irrelevant. Exceeding it through 10:30 would invalidate that it had held, but this morning is otherwise noise.
I hadn”t seen headlines since
I hadn”t seen headlines since this morning”s Durable Goods before the Market Tour. The non-reaction to Durable Goods miss had no effect on price action, but a 4-point drop began about 10 minutes later. I noted during the Tour that this seemed odd, but now it”s clear — a Fed speaker (Powell) was on the tape with his expectations for a Sep/Dec rate hike.
That”s more bullish than if it were a reaction to the econ report. If that”s the market”s sentiment, then the its reaction tends to be duplicated by the subsequent reports. Not being the case, after all, doesn”t assure recovering. But it keeps the door open. And recovering should be done abruptly, if at all.
Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcrwbkc
The First Trade… Fallen, but trying to get back up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
After having trended down into Friday”s close, Monday”s open formed a “session-long rally” setup by gapping up above Friday afternoon”s 2108.75 high. The minimum objective to retest last Thursday”s high was fulfilled by a late-morning probe above it around 2121.00. That was a likely spot for correcting, and the noon hour attacked 2112.00. Although a “session-long rally” normally would resume rallying, Tuesday afternoon only ranged choppily sideways.
Overnight action”s new info…
Monday”s post-close dip to a fresh low attacking 2111.25 had reacted back up aggressively. That extended through the Globex open, attacking 2121.00 to within 2 ticks. Its 61.8% retracement down to 2115.00 is now retesting 2117.50.
If, then…
Did yesterday”s “session-long rally” fall and can”t get up, or is it just resting? Probably resting, since the morning”s rally didn”t invert during the afternoon. More so now, since overnight action has only firmed. But the next trending attempt is caught between two influences. One is that the rest can”t continue indefinitely without launching at least a temporary intraday drop. The other influence is that not yet resuming the rally pre-open would undermine a later attempt. So, gapping up — preferably above 2121.00 or quickly through it — would be credible for extending higher. But not gapping up would make any post-open sell-off likely to extend down.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2118.50-2119.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, and likely at least to test the 2121.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2122.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2121.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2112.00 would be likely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down at 10:15.
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2129.25 | 2121.00 |
| …would target | 2136.25 | 2128.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2121.50 | 2113.50 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2108.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Dude, where”s my session-long rally?
Dude, where”s my session-long rally? Perhaps the open”s setup had gotten a little ahead of itself overnight, and then again after the open. Probing above Friday”s entire session and not just above its afternoon high expended a lot of extra energy unnecessarily.
The morning peaked where expected in the 2121 area. The noon hour”s counter-trending dug deep back to 2112.25. But then systems just sort of shut down going into the afternoon”s bias environment, which triggered a late bias-down that wasn”t at all productive.
Buyers didn”t become trapped while retaking control after the noon hour, they just never retook control — and sellers didn”t exploit the opportunity. The rally”s sponsorship was never invalidated, as the session-long template just stopped tracking while the balance of the afternoon ranged choppily sideways.
New highs remain in-play. Resuming the rally overnight to gap up Tuesday is the most reliable path higher without becoming immediately vulnerable to reversing back down intraday. Otherwise, Monday”s flat afternoon bleeding into Tuesday”s session will undermine any intraday rally effort.
Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwhwmj
(Check this post”s comments section later for the overnight chaRTroom links)