Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 18 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy, high-profile and with several items that have track records for influencing price action. More so, whichever direction the pre-open reports trigger a reaction tends to be duplicated by post-open reports.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.00 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2096.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2088.50 | 2080.00 |
| …would target | 2080.50 | 2072.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Anchors away.
Did opening range hold-up long enough to absorb selling?
Post-open action immediately attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick before reversing up as quickly to 2095.25. Price action since then has trended back down.
Trending back down in a very narrow range can be only noise. In fact, the reaction down only attacked the 2090.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick through 10:15, triggering it. Only after becoming too late to invoke the grace period was it pierced.
And piercing under the 2090.75 bias-up signal has been short-lived. Its support held again at 10:30. This is a bias-up environment, targeting a retest of the 2096.50 overnight high, which is also this morning”s bias-up target.
Without a fresh high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2090.75 bias-up signal could still invalidate its 10:15 trigger. Meanwhile, back above 2092.25 would signal momentum reversing up.
The pre-open dip from 2096.50
The pre-open dip from 2096.50 touched 2089.25 before bouncing to 2093. Recovering 2093.50 through 9:45 would be bullish, but holding its test through the first several minutes could have the exact opposite effect. So, we”ll implement a short-entry quickly if 2093.50 is touched, and a long-entry just above it. Don”t forget that trending will be difficult after awhile, as the afternoon”s FOMC events get nearer… Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtmhpf
The First Trade… Legs?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday night”s drop back down to intraday lows at 2062.00 had evaporated by Tuesday”s 2074.50 open. That pre-open recovery extended through the day to 2088.75. The bias environment”s exit was above the noon hour”s range, but that momentum wasn”t confirmed. Still, the afternoon”s bias-up triggered, leaving outstanding its 2090.75 target.
Overnight action”s new info…
The Globex open immediately spiked up to touch 2090.75. Extremely narrow ranging supported by Tuesday”s 2088.75 high eventually broke higher into and out of Europe”s opens. Touching 2096.50 (this morning”s bias-up target) has reacted back down into the narrow range at 2089.75.
If, then…
“Grehetoric,” Greece+Euro+exit+rhetoric… Grehetoric has been pretty thick overnight, which is to say just slightly above normal. That didn”t prevent probing above yesterday”s highs, let alone push price into negative territory. Most of the earlier gain is now retraced, but from higher levels that can help to absorb the selling before it gains traction. Trending very far is unlikely before this afternoon”s FOMC events. So, retracing yesterday”s rally should be limited if attempted at all, while rallying should be limited to retesting overnight highs.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 2093.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2090.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2086.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.