Posts by Rod David
Almost like Monday”s sellers, Tuesday
Almost like Monday”s sellers, Tuesday buyers gained no traction for their effort. Almost. There were two big differences, as big as they could be without actually gaining traction.
First, Tuesday trended further into positive territory from the open, while Monday shrank the size of its opening dip. Second, Tuesday”s bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s range, while Monday”s bias environment exit made no trending effort.
Of course, both setups are similar from there, since the last two signal windows didn”t extend. That required gapping down Tuesday if sellers were to regain control. Extending higher Wednesday would be credible, and absorbing an early dip would be likely, but neither is required as if buyers had gained traction.
One other difference does make Tuesday”s rally likelier to extend, or at least to try — the afternoon”s bias-up left unfinished business above at its 2090.75 target.
The FOMC policy statement and Yellen Q&A tend to paralyze price action with anxiousness. So, rallying before then should be obvious early if at all. We”ll have the WedEX signal at the close. More detail was discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpcsbk
[Links to monitor overnight price action will be found in this post”s comments section on the Activity Feed after 6pm ET, or email me.]
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.50 | 2090.75 |
| …would target | 2105.00 | 2096.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2090.50 | 2082.00 |
| …would target | 2085.50 | 2076.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Momentum, check. Ignition, ignition?
Rallying throughout the day should bode well overnight.
Sellers weren”t actually marginalized through the open, but the session has behaved that way. The overnight low”s recovery from 2062.00 that opened at 2074.50, has extended higher to 2088.75.
The afternoon”s bias-up signal triggered late. That”s more predictive than this morning”s no-bias signal that was invalidated.
Meanwhile, the afternoon”s bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high. Entering the final hour above the final hour”s high would have signaled buyers gained traction for their efforts. That didn”t happen. Trending up to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would still suffice.
Otherwise, back under 2086.25 would start to signal at least a corrective dip underway. Probably nothing more substantial, as the 2088.75 high”s retest wasn”t distributive and is likely to be retested.
Daily Spot… Gold liquefying.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down only slightly Tuesday amid more progress toward Grexit continued to suggest that any detrimental effect was still not in-play near-term, and that the eventual third higher close remains intact.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping at Tuesday”s open allo the way down to 1175.50 helped to confirm somewhat that the bounce through Monday afternoon had expended any remaining buying pressure before finally resuming the decline next targeting 1158.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After failing to maintain Monday”s probe back up into the 16.15-16.35 range, Tuesday”s open gapped down to attack recent lows, supported by 15.85-15.90.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing overnight and testing 151-22 Tuesday morning was still likely only noise while consolidating or backing-and-filling before Wednesday or Thursday. Retracing most of the open”s rally back down to 150-15 helped to confirm, albeit still reflecting a little more optimism than would be optimal at this stage for a durable rally.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing 60.30 Monday night was already reacting down into Tuesday”s open, and essentially held 59.75 through the day.. Closing above 60.80 would signal another rally attempt underway.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending higher Tuesday would have confirmed Monday”s close reversed the multi-session pullback.But the inside day only avoided retracing under the 2.83 pullback limit, to keep alive the upward momentum.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 17 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Look for volatility to be clamped down by late-morning, and through the noon hour as the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement approaches. Then expect that reaction to be substantial, followed by another substantial reaction when Yellen does the quarterly Q&A.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
**FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
**Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
FOMC Forecasts
2:30 PM ET