Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.75 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2099.50 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2085.75 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2079.00 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wills and ways.
No-bias invalidated.
I was suspicious of this morning”s no-bias signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility had been exited above yesterday”s highs, which can marginalize sellers.
But that didn”t prevent dropping to 2073.75 up to 10:15. Testing but not triggering the 2080.00 bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2068.00 bias-down signal.
But without any deeper consequences after 10:15, exiting the bias environment above 2080.00 would invalidate the no-bias. And after rallying to 2083.75, the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 about 1 point above 2080.00. The no-bias is invalidated. The 2068.00 objective is moot, and doesn”t become unfinished business below.
Entering the noon hour back under 2080.00 would still make 2068.00 unfinished business below. Otherwise, the recovery will more likely extend higher intraday. Sellers can”t be marginalized today, so extending the recovery can”t afford much delay.
Post-open review… Cockroaches and sellers.
Daylight leaves no traces of the overnight dip.
Like cockroaches scurrying back under the refrigerator when flicking on the kitchen light, S&Ps surged 10 points into and out of Tuesday”s open. No trace remained of the 10-point overnight drop under yesterday afternoon”s 2072.50 low.
The offsetting action suggests the scenario discussed during the pre-market Tour, that the pre-open recovery was an accelerated version of yesterday morning”s recovery. Even the reversal”s symmetry correlated.
None of which assures rallying out of here. In fact, the 2080.00 bias-up signal held its test through 10:15 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2068.00 bias-down signal is in-play.
I”m suspicious of this morning bias signal. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility above yesterday”s 2078.25 highs had all but marginalized sellers.
The reaction down hasn”t extended since touching 2073.75 before 10:15. Avoiding a fresh low under 2073.75 would allow the no-bias to be invalidated by exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2080.00.
An ascending triangle had formed
An ascending triangle had formed while attacking Monday”s 2071.25 opening print. Its break higher blipped-up to attack 2073, and then blapped-down to 2067.50. But the past hour has ranged narrowly around 2071.25.
So, gapping down under 2068 isn”t being threatened, but can become a threat if tested quickly. Otherwise, rallying out of the open would be credible for extending back to/through yesterday”s 2078.25 highs.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for more detail:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrktzc
The First Trade… They’ve kept selling.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Greece news triggered Sunday night”s gap down, and extended it through Monday”s open to eventually touch 2062.75. Firming 8 points into late-morning to test the 2071.00 open, and then surged 8 points more to test 2078.25. The balance of the session ranged sideways, supported by 2072.50.
Overnight action”s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging crept back down to 2072.50 and then ranged narrowly around it. Its break came suddenly one hour before Europe”s opens, which were greeted at 2067.00. The break extended until one hour after Europe”s opens, piercing Monday”s low down to 2062.00. That extra dip was recovered, and and now more so, as 2071.00 is being tested.
If, then…
Sellers didn”t gain traction for yesterday”s efforts, so gapping down today is the only way to resume the decline. Gapping down would be defined by yesterday morning”s last relative low at 2068.00. Holding its support through the open and THEN declining is possible, but likely to be recovered. Meanwhile, holding its support through the open is likelier simply to rally back to yesterday”s 2078.25 highs. Having bounced already from an overnight slide, the bigger question right now is whether the bounce is rejecting that slide, or refueling it for a much deeper decline. Regardless of any unfinished business above, the decline is capable of resuming, aggressively.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2071.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2065.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would start becoming likelier also to exceed the 2060.75 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal, next targeting 2052.00.