Posts by Rod David
Monday”s 3:10-3:20 timing window avoided
Monday”s 3:10-3:20 timing window avoided breaking under the bias environment”s 2072.50 low. That was the last opportunity for sellers to gain traction. After firming into the position-squaring window at 3:37, a surge was suddenly attacking the afternoon”s 2078.25 highs. That was the likely alternative to trending down.
Actually, the late surge stopped pessimistically short of probing fresh session highs. That”s not quite “ineffectual pessimism” when its context is a session spent entirely in negative territory. But neither does it reflect bottom-fishing, or refueling sellers — neither is a contrarian matter, but either could have undermined a further recovery if failing to hold up through the close.
No unfinished business below was left outstanding, so gapping down Tuesday would be considered new sponsorship. And trending up overnight would be credible for resuming last Wednesday”s confirmed breakout.
More details were discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/hthtkhc
Overnight links to view chaRTroom action:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/748-955-488
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2088.75 | 2080.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2086.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2076.75 | 2068.00 |
| …would target | 2069.50 | 2060.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Down for the count.
Morning drop”s retracement doesn”t translate to afternoon recovery.
We discussed a setup during this weekend”s Saturday Review, which anticipated recovering into positive territory from an overnight or opening probe into negative territory. The probe occurred, and it was retraced back through the open. But its retracement never extended into positive territory.
Not, yet.
Tomorrow”s session isn”t being greeted from a position of weakness. After extending down 8 points, the 2071.25 opening print was recovered by 8 points, as well. And once it was recovered, it stayed recovered. Also, despite the final hour”s entry overlapping the noon hour”s low, the 3:10-3:20 timing windows did not exploit the weakness. So, sellers didn”t gain traction for their earlier effort.
But buyers didn”t gain traction, either. Extending down Monday night and trending down Tuesday is possible, which is how the decline has developed Friday and Monday. But not gaining traction Monday does require gapping down Tuesday to undermine a recovery. Not gapping down would not likely resume the decline — even if fresh lows were probed intraday.
So, as for that setup we discussed on Saturday, it remains intact since today”s sellers gained no traction. Its delay suggests that Tuesday will gap up to fulfill it. But the vulnerability to a recovery would evaporate by gapping down.
Daily Spot… Euro cares least about Grexit?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An eerily narrow range accompanied pessimistic stock market reactions to the weekend”s heightened risk of a Grexit. The bigger picture continues to suggest that at least one more higher close remains outstanding before a sell-off could be credible. Monday only firmed back toward recent highs around 1.1300, but an Ascending Triangle has formed.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s fluctuation from positive territory into negative was recovered positive again Monday morning, nearly touching last week”s 1191.70 bounce limit high up to 1190.00. Closing back under 1183.50 would likely launch a new downleg.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday extended higher briefly to probe back into the 16.15-16.35 resistance range, which again rejected price back down through the close, as a recovery is premature.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday reacted down sharply from only attacking 151-25 resistance to within 3 ticks. Nevertheless, Monday morning pierced 151-25 by 1 tick before reversing down under Friday”s reaction to 150-06. At least a session of backing-and-filling is now likely.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh pullback lows testing 58.75 Sunday night trended back up after Monday”s open, still needing to recover the 60.30 pullback limit that had failed to hold its test as support last week. Closing back above 60.80 would still be credible for launching an upleg.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s test of 2.74 support had reacted up sharply, only to probe a fresh session low at 2.72 support. Monday”s open gapped up to 2.80 resistance and extended sharply higher intraday to retest last week”s highs. Closing higher again Tuesday would confirm the rally had resumed.
I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.
Still a tough climb beyond recovering last night”s open.
Was the retest of Tuesday”s range completed? This morning”s 2062.75 low pierced it by 1 tick. That”s basis Sep. Meanwhile, Jun and cash never touched it.
I tend to give buyers a benefit of the doubt, having bounced 15 points since then. The recovery blew through the 2071.00 open, on the way up to 2078.00, testing last night”s 2076.50 open.
Hovering there has narrowed its range into the noon hour, forming an Ascending Triangle. Accumulative, continuing, or not, this is still well into negative territory. Much more work is needed to begin fulfilling the setup discussed during Saturday Review — probing deeply negative territory and recovering well into positive territory.
Triggering this afternoon”s 2080.00 bias-up signal would be a big step in fulfilling that setup. Exiting the noon hour back in positive territory above 2085.00 would be a bigger step. Meanwhile, back under 2072.25 is vulnerable to resuming the decline, at least to retest this morning”s low.