Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Will Tuesday”s housing sector data confirm last week”s stronger reports?
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2089.00 | 2080.00 |
| …would target | 2095.25 | 2086.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.50 | 2069.75 |
| …would target | 2072.75 | 2063.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Air pocket change.
Opening plunge puts the burden of proof on buyers.
Fresh lows greeted the open at 2070.25, filling the gap back to last Tuesday”s cash session close. Having bounced already from Tuesday”s 2072.25 futures gap, there was no bullish reason to touch the lower gap.
That”s why just touching 2070.25 post-open could discover an air pocket… which it did.
Actually, isolating the touch of 2070.25to the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have been absorbed. But the open”s 7-point plunge was certainly an air pocket.
1-minute RSI diverged positively on a lower-low at 2062.75, launching a bounce to attack 2070.25 (now being probed). It”s not required, but extending the bounce could touch 2074.00 without assuring an actual recovery underway.
Meanwhile, back under 2065.50 would signal the decline had resumed, next targeting 2059.50.
The reaction to last night”s
The reaction to last night”s gap down had ranged flat-to-higher until Europe”s opens at 2081.25. Trending down since then has now retraced back to the open”s 2072 low, and lower, attacking an air pocket that isn”t much lower. The best and perhaps only hope of avoiding it would be to exit the first 15 minutes of volatility in rally mode. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvprtj
The First Trade… More or less.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s 10-point gap down extended another 10 points into late-morning at 2082.00. That was the session low. A bounce was retraced almost entirely into the afternoon, while several sell signals stopped optimistically short of touching the low. The balance of the session ranged sideways.
Overnight action”s new info…
Greece headlines triggered a 9-point gap down Sunday night. Friday”s outstanding 2074.00 target was probed by 2 points during choppy sideways ranging back up to 2081.50.
If, then…
Last night”s lows tested Tuesday”s “lower prior highs.” This is a possible low that we discussed during Saturday Review. Below it is the gap back to Tuesday”s 2072.25 futures close which was also touched overnight. Having bounced there, just touching Tuesday”s 2070.00 cash session close could find an air pocket down to 2059.50. Any one of these levels is capable of launching a reversal back into positive territory — already recovering at the open could rally sharply into Wednesday morning. But not rejecting the drop by noon would be unlikely to avoid a much deeper decline underway.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2072.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering this morning”s 2074.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 2084.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.