Posts by Rod David
It”s Greece. Again. Talks ended
It”s Greece. Again. Talks ended this weekend at an(other) impasse. S&P futures gapped down 8 points at tonight”s Globex open. This immediately fulfilled the 2074 target of Friday afternoon”s three sell signals that were inhibited by “ineffectual optimism.” It tests the natural support of “lower prior highs” I described during yesterday”s Saturday Review. And it teases the setup which still suggests recovering into positive territory through Monday”s open, from here or from 10 points lower. Even without recovering, this initial response promises an exciting and opportunistic session tomorrow.
Here”s the NON xp-compatible link to monitor overnight action. (Let me know if you need xp-friendly access):
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
The Universe, week of Jun 15 2015… Prior high, prior high, prior high.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
If there”s any single lesson that I”ve reiterated through this service, it is to honor the trend.
“The trend is your friend,” as goes the widely-attributed Wall Street saying. (“Until it isn”t,” as the saying is finished.) The uptrend is a lot more friendly, but at least the downtrend warns you not to buy.
What is a trend? It is a series of higher highs and higher lows (uptrend), or lower lows and lower highs (downtrend). In the latter”s case of a downtrend, between each lower low is a lower high, which I also call the “prior high.”
So, if there”s any single corollary to the single lesson, it is this: The prior high is resistance.
Even in an ongoing series of prior highs, an occasional bounce might pierce it. This would allow the downtrend to give the impression of reversing its trend back up. Perhaps it is — if that prior high is pierced after a period of basing. But not usually when the downtrend”s cadence remains intact.
While bouncing prematurely back above a prior high is almost surely temporary, it can also be a harbinger. Monitor those for a low-volume pullback, and a higher low (preferably holding a 61.8% retracement of the first recovery attempt”s upleg).
Basing is more bullish than trying to rally too soon — especially when the downtrend”s cadence remains intact. Often, the alluring bounce is triggered by a press release, which just happens to come at the downtrend series” predictable cycle low. I mean, come on.
In bullish a sector, laggards can have better results at suddenly reversing their downtrends. Whether playing catch-up, or benefiting from rotation out of leadership. This is not currently a bullish sector. So, view the bounces skeptically.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for June 15 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 11 | 11.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 18 | 18.00% |
| # down: | 71 | 71.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.008 | 0.022 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.360 | 0.570 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| AXXU | 0.037 | 0.140 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.044 | 0.102 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.410 | 0.580 | down |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 1.340 | 1.750 | down |
| CARA | 8.800 | 10.300 | down |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.027 | 0.038 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.530 | 0.750 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGPD | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.008 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENDO | 0.016 | 0.025 | up |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| FITX | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| CAFS | 0.005 | 0.030 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.100 | 3.640 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.016 | 0.025 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | flat |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | flat |
| INSY | 29.870 | 36.330 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.190 | 0.310 | up |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.140 | 0.850 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MDRM | 0.032 | 0.061 | down |
| MINE | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.072 | 0.100 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | up |
| NDEV | 0.040 | 0.165 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| NTRR | 0.025 | 0.050 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.023 | 0.033 | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | up |
| PMCB | 0.110 | 0.163 | flat |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | down |
| PZOO | 0.011 | 0.017 | flat |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.008 | 0.016 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.141 | 0.230 | down |
| SRNA | 0.080 | 0.140 | down |
| STEV | 0.050 | 0.067 | down |
| TAUG | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| THCZ | 0.130 | 0.255 | flat |
| TRTC | 0.090 | 0.180 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.415 | 0.715 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.030 | 0.090 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO | 0.300 | 0.480 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.002 | 0.007 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.820 | 1.160 | flat |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 6/13/15)… It ain’t over.
This weekend”s Saturday Review recording is unavailable in mp4, so let me know whether you encounter any difficulty viewing it in this format.
The first 30-35 minutes discuss the broader market”s bigger picture. Why did the decline into last week”s low stop where it did? Can it resume? What does last week”s rally tell us to expect? And much more… This will be an exciting week, with Yellen”s quarterly Q&A (usually our most profitable session of the quarter) and Friday”s quadruple Witch expiration.
The requested stock chart analyses, in order, are: BABA, AAPL, TWTR, ORCL, FB, JBL, ADBE.
Some of the comments/questions that attendees posted:
lower is not contemplated yet?
two consective closes over 2113 we are heading to new highs?
relative behavior of major indexes – anything chaanged?
seems like NDX was underperforming for a few days with DOW outperforming
expiration on fri
do u think 140 AAPL may coincide with the final new high in ES ?
earnings on wed is it greeting from strength? orcl
coincidentally 140 AAPL – 2140 ES
FB has to get to 100 by 80/100 law
ah need to climb above 90 first
On orcl, does the high in Dec make the price action from march through
today accumulation rather than distribution?
Me and the gang, we”re
Me and the gang, we”re sitting around talking, and Kimmy says, “Let”s review the bigger picture.” We all pretty much agree that sounds like a good idea, so Lawrence says, “When?” “Saturday at 9:30,” I say, and upon noticing their quizzical looks, I add, “Morning — Saturday morning.” They all nod in understanding, but only momentarily before those quizzical looks return. “ET,” I add. “Saturday Review, 9:30am ET. We”ll analyze stock requests, too.” Then Paul mentions something about sleeping in, which gets everyone”s attention, so he quickly acts like he was only kidding. “See you in 45 minutes,” Paul says. “Yep, see you there,” we say.
Saturday Review 9:30am ET:
XP-Friendly — https://www.anymeeting.com/757-778-189
not xp-friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
[Post-market Wrap recording linked at
[Post-market Wrap recording linked at the bottom…]
Friday”s session was under pressure throughout the day. Throughout Thursday night, for that matter. In fact, downtrending began at Thursday”s 2106.75 opening peak, and extended through Friday morning”s 2082 low. Friday afternoon remained under pressure, but didn”t probe lower lows.
That”s basically the problem with yet being a bottom. Friday afternoon”s lows stopped optimistically short of touching the morning”s low, let alone probing under it. Recovering would be premature, without first testing 2080.50, if not also 2074. And not recovering from either would target a probe under last week”s 2061-2063 lows.
A lot of selling pressure was expended before Friday”s open, but that didn”t prevent extending down. Now much more selling pressure has been expended, without reversing the trend down. If this has been sponsored by weak hands, then its reaction should be substantial — preferably, gapping up Monday after probing fresh lows overnight.
Join us in the morning for this weekend”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss the two paths down, one of which would first visit new highs. We”ll also discuss the consequences of either, and the potential for simply launching a new rally leg. Then we”ll review any stock chart on demand. Follow this link in the morning:
Saturday Review:
XP-Friendly — https://www.anymeeting.com/757-778-189
not xp-friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybwtys