Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 29, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The calendar is unusually light for a Thursday, usually the week’s busiest for econ reports. And none has a reliable track record for influencing price action. Not until the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, and more so with two Fed speakers scheduled simultaneously.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
2:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
2:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2696.00 | 2696.00 |
| …would target | 2702.25 | 2702.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2687.50 | 2687.25 |
| …would target | 2680.50 | 2680.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back-and-fill.
Gap up is retraced.
Gapping up doesn’t qualify as “almost literally exploding higher.” Actually extending higher post-open would have qualified, but that didn’t develop. 
The 2695.25 opening print was exceeded momentarily up to 2698.00 — which also probed the 2697.25 pre-open high — but the first half-hour otherwise trended down.
Not exploding higher post-open was likelier only a rubber band stretch. Its snap back down rejected both bias-up parameters in the process. The 2688.00 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period, but it was being probed down to 2684.25 at the 10:30 grace period. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is now in-play.
Having triggered late, no “unfinished business” will be left outstanding below. At least the 2672.25 bias-down signal’s test is likely, but not necessarily its 2664.50 bias-down target. Exiting the bias environment back above its 2694.75 bias-up target would invalidate the downside altogether.
Regardless, this morning’s post-open dip should be only temporary backing-and-filling before resuming the rally. The open’s gap up is a position of strength. The open did fill the gap back up to last Tuesday’s cash session and futures closes, giving sellers a little more credibility — but another test of last Tuesday’s gap should provide limited resistance.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Stealing post-open aggression?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Especially volatile overnight action preceded Tuesday’s open. None of which reversed momentum down and only chipped away at resistance. Two overnight dips to 2655.00 had been interrupted by a spike up to 2684.00. Similarly, the post-open dip to 2655.00 was also recovered, back above both bias-down parameters by 10:15 which put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. The balance of the session climbed back up to eventually attack the overnight high within 1-3 ticks. The morning’s 2686.00 bias-up target remained outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s recovery was probing fresh highs through the close. Globex immediately fulfilled the outstanding target and touched 2688.75 as resistance. A pullback to 2681.00 was recovered to fresh highs at 2692.50. Its reaction down to 2683.00 through Europe’s opens was fully recovered, and now another reaction down has recovered by spiking up to fresh highs attacking 2696.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Coiling and restrained optimism in probing above Monday’s highs suggested that extending higher at all would almost literally explode higher. Subdued gains would suggest instead a rubber band stretching, before it snaps back down. Gapping doesn’t qualify as exploding higher. So, not extending higher aggressively post-open would remain vulnerable to snapping back down. “Lower prior highs” and the gap back down to yesterday’s close would offer support, so that a reaction down could still recover and resume the rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open above 2696.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2694.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2691.75 would be likely to trigger the 2688.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2687.75 | 2688.00 |
| …would target | 2694.50 | 2694.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2672.25 | 2672.25 |
| …would target | 2664.50 | 2664.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.