Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Especially volatile overnight action preceded Tuesday’s open. None of which reversed momentum down and only chipped away at resistance. Two overnight dips to 2655.00 were interrupted by a spike up to 2684.00, which the session climbed back up to eventually attack within 1-3 ticks. The morning’s rejection of both bias-down parameters had put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters, one still outstanding at 2686.00.
Coiling and restrained optimism in probing above Monday’s highs suggest almost literally exploding higher if the rally’s extension is valid. Subdued gains would suggest instead a rubber band stretching, before it snaps back down. And there’s no longer room down to 2660.00, which has become too chipped away to prevent trending lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout under 1.1425 extended down Tuesday to overlap the 2-week old low session down to 1.1295, which reacted back up above the low session’s high. Extending the decline any further can’t afford to hesitate, or else a durable bottom will begin forming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already piercing the 1220.50 sell signal overnight for the first time in a week of only touching it, Tuesday’s open slid sharply to fill a gap outstanding from 1215.00, probing it down to 1211.50. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm the trend has reversed down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh lows down to 14.05 help to confirm the ongoing break under the 14.32 sell signal, and the downside momentum does keep alive the reversal.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight from Monday’s dip to the 139-22 sell signal did not resume the rally. But neither did it confirm Monday’s dip, making fresh highs likely.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still firming overnight and Tuesday morning attacked 52.40 before reversing to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 50.40 close. This can qualify as neutralizing the required retest of Friday’s plunge low before a credible bottom can form. Price has already reacted back up to Friday’s 51.50 highs.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jan which trades at a 3-cent premium to Dec]… Tuesday’s inside day doesn’t confirm Monday’s break under the 4.44 sell signal. Back above 4.62 would target new highs above 5.00.
Mid-day Update… Stepping up.
Morning’s highs corrected, not reversed.
Holding tests of both bias-down parameters this morning put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. The path certainly was not direct, and it’s not complete, but the morning’s 2678.00 bias-up signal was probed by 1 point before the bias environment began lapsing. A test of its 2686.00 bias-up target remains outstanding.
2678.00 is this afternoon’s bias-up signal, too. The 2667.25 bias-down signal held its test to trigger late no-bias. So, 2678.00 should define the window’s upper-end if tested. It’s being attacked now to within 3 points.
Probing above the 2678.00 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment would require its retracement. Probing it to fulfill the 2686.00 objective could reverse the trend down. Before then, there’s room down to the 2662.00 area before suggesting momentum may be reversing down already.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 28, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Wednesday morning’s econ reports — including the 5 simultaneous pre-open reports, and the 3 simultaneous post-open reports — have a track record for influencing price action. But the simultaneous announcements does create potential for a surprise. An afternoon Fed speaker would still scheduled.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Retail Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Inventories [Advance]
8:30 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2877.75 | 2678.00 |
| …would target | 2685.75 | 2686.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2667.25 | 2667.25 |
| …would target | 2662.00 | 2662.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.