Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Eventually coming up for air.
Flailing about through the open narrowly avoids drowning.
Pullbacks need to hold 2660.00 to maintain upside momentum from Sunday night’s recovery. 
Trump’s post-close tweet yesterday put that to the test, as did the overnight wild ride up to 2684.00 and back down again.
Pre-open and post-open tests of 2655.00 both tested the 2657.50 bias-down target. Both recovered, ultimately holding both 2660.00 and the 2664.25 bias-down signal through 10:15. Offsetting tests of BOTH bias-up parameters is in-play at 2678.00 and 2686.00.
So far, only 2676.50 has been tested. That’s more than 20 points above the earlier lows. It’s the pre-10:15 high, and has yet to be exceeded, which keeps open the door to reacting down. In fact, its 12-point reaction down to 2664.00 is substantial, too.
The pullback is testing support at the 2664.50 bias-down signal. Back above 2668.50 should resume the rally. Nothing prevents dipping any deeper first, but there’s no bullish reason to revisit 2660.00. And exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under its 2657.50 bias-down target would invalidate the upside objectives that were put into play earlier.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Blips up and down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s rally from Friday’s 2628.00 close had extended up to 2666.00. Its correction down to 2655.00 was recovered and extended through Monday’s first half-hour to attack 2672.00. Which held a test of Wednesday’s prior high to form a base. That created a lot of room to absorb backing-and-filling. The 2652.50 noon hour low barely and briefly probed under the pre-open low, and held Wednesday’s lower-end. The post-open rally resumed until fulfilling its minimum objective of a fresh high attacking 2674.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the close extended to test 2676.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Headlines have batted about the market repeatedly. It began before the futures close when Trump comments immediately following the cash session close triggered a blip down to 2668.00. That extended lower at the Globex open until attacking 2655.00. Its recovery back up to 2668.00 reacted down to 2661.00. Then a couple of headlines took the market for a ride, the first one triggering a 23-point spike up to 2684.00, and then the second clarifying headline triggering a slide back down to 2660.00. Another bounce to 2674.00 has been retraced entirely, too, back down to 2659.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
But for Trump’s comments, yesterday’s close was a compelling hold-long. Although based on erroneous information that was corrected, the overnight spike and its reversal confirm two key characteristics of the potential upside. That extending higher at all should almost literally explode higher, especially above 2678.00. Overnight action also confirmed the 2660.00 downside support, which was tested several times. It’s being tested now, so we may see whether breaking its support will require forming another accumulative pattern before the recovery can resume. Its break still has room down to 2646.00 before reversing the trend back down.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2667.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2664.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2660.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2677.75 | 2678.00 |
| …would target | 2685.75 | 2686.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2664.50 | 2664.50 |
| …would target | 2657.50 | 2657.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s rally from Friday’s 2628.00 close had extended up to 2666.00. Its correction down to 2655.00 was recovered and extended through Monday’s first half-hour to attack 2672.00. Which held a test of Wednesday’s prior high to form a base.
That created a lot of room to absorb backing-and-filling. The 2652.50 noon hour low barely and briefly probed under the pre-open low, and held Wednesday’s lower-end. The post-open rally resumed until fulfilling its minimum objective of a fresh high attacking 2674.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the close extended to test 2676.00.
Trump comments immediately following the close triggered a blip down to 2668.00. Extending higher at all should almost literally explode higher. Extending higher above 2678.00 could become very exponential. There’s otherwise room back down to the 2660.00 area before even suggesting the near-term upside is delayed, and then well under Monday’s intraday lows before reversing the trend back down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight and gapping up to test 1.1400 was reversed down through the morning to test negative territory, potentially to produce a second consecutive lower close that confirms the sell signal which began breaking last Tuesday.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s bounce held 1228.50 to reverse back down Monday morning. But the 1220.50 sell signal continued to hold, as it had during the two prior sessions.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Sunday night above the 14.32 sell signal was erased by Monday’s open, and its reversal extended into negative territory through the morning.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s failed probe above Tuesday’s prior highs continued reversing down Sunday night, testing the 139-22 sell signal near Monday’s open. Holding its support maintains the rally’s potential to extend.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming Monday morning was shallower than the two prior plunges’ immediate reactions, suggesting that pessimism may be reaching levels capable of forming a bottom. Regardless, no recovery would be credible for completing a bottom without first probing under Friday’s 50.15 lows intraday.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thanksgiving lows didn’t qualify for triggering the 4.38 sell signal. But their reaction up stopped short of triggering the 4.59 buy signal before gapping down Sunday night to probe fresh lows at 3.99. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm.