Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Backing-and-filling anyway.
Noon hour probes under open’s low.
Reacting down from the open’s 2671.75 high had met its 2662.75 objective. And bounced. But the bounce never probed higher, while lower and lower lows have probed fresh post-open lows down to 2652.50.
Backing-and-filling through the morning was likely, and unlikely to damage the recovery’s chart. Having held a test of the afternoon’s 2655.25 bias-down signal, a lower low could now damage the recovery’s chart. Meanwhile, the no-bias window has room up to its 2668.25 bias-up signal before signaling the recovery has resumed.
A recovery could still resume from a deeper pullback. Fresh lows still have room down to 2646.00 and 2639.50 before signaling the recovery failed, and that the decline is resuming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy with Fed speakers, from one pre-open to three as the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing. The pre-open econ reports aren’t reliably influential to price action, but any reaction would likely be duplicated by the post-open report.
Richard Clarida Speaks
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
2:30 PM ET
*Esther George Speaks
2:30 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.50 | 2668.25 |
| …would target | 2675.00 | 2674.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2655.25 | 2655.25 |
| …would target | 2648.25 | 2648.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… The upper-end.
Post-open rally tests Wednesday’s highs.
The overnight rally up to 2666.00 ultimately corrected pre-open down almost 11 points to attack 2655.00. The open wasn’t greeted much higher, but it had soon surged back up to 2666.00. And then higher to attack 2672.00, essentially Wednesday’s highs.
The upper-end of the range. Resistance.
Another tick higher to 2672.00 would have allowed a higher pullback limit and sell signal. Another minute higher would have made a pullback likely to persist through the morning. But the minimum likely retracement target was met anyway in an attack on 2662.00.
The pullback could extend lower and persist longer, but neither is necessary. Regardless, the test of Wednesday’s high is getting a benefit of the doubt for forming a bullish base. While not helpful, a deeper pullback could test 2646.00 or 2639.00 before signaling last week’s decline has resumed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Seasonal bullishness finally arrives.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s price action was contained entirely within Tuesday’s 2632.00-2671.00 range, essentially qualifying it as another inside day. So was Tuesday — Thursday was closed. Any other session would have considered this sequence to be bearish, and closing at Friday’s 2628.00 intraday low would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test, and despite still being above the 2626.00 overnight low. But that predictability is undermined by the evaporating volume. So, the late 13-point slide back under the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short through the early close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open surged 10 points into a narrow consolidation under 2640.00. Later firming again to attack 2646.00 hovered under Friday’s late-morning high. Surging into and out of Europe’s opens has touched 2666.00, just 5 points under Tuesday/Wednesday’s highs. Its reaction down has been consolidating at 2658.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any delay in recovering coming out of the weekend would have made a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier. The overnight rally doesn’t reverse the trend up — it’s not even any likelier to extend higher post-open, as seasonal bullishness ended with absorbing Friday’s drop — but it does create room to expend post-open selling pressures before signaling the decline is extending. And extending higher is possible, as is absorbing more backing-and-filling first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 2652.00 would be likely to exceed the 2645.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.