Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2637.50 | 2638.00 |
| …would target | 2644.50 | 2645.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2627.00 | 2627.25 |
| …would target | 2620.50 | 2620.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s retest of the 1.1425 sell signal as resistance was repeated Thursday, before resolving down aggressively overnight. Gapping down Friday under Tuesday’s 1.1380 low extended down only slightly intraday, but into the afternoon anyway, which often ensure at least probing a fresh low on Monday morning.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Hovering just under Wednesday’s surge finally broke lower ahead of Friday’s open, which extended back down to the 1220.50 sell signal. Its test is holding, so far, but its break at any time would be credible for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce never extended higher but delayed its reaction down until Thursday night, then compensated by plunging through its 14.32 sell signal. Friday’s open attacked 14.15 momentarily, reacting up to only attack the sell signal as resistance.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction down from Tuesday’s fresh highs had left no “unfinished business” above, but also didn’t reverse momentum down. Probing fresh highs Friday retraced back into Tuesday’s range, still neither creating nor leaving unfinished business above, but also not reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s plunge required a retest to fresh lows under 53.05, just as did the prior Tuesday’s plunge, regardless of the interim bounce’s degree and duration. The wait was less, but still substantial as an interim bounce up to 55.85 plunged Thursday night to 50.55. An Island reversal would form from gapping up, but the trend otherwise remains down.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing under the 4.38 sell signal was isolated between Wednesday’s close and Friday’s open, so closing above 4.59 would signal a probe of fresh highs above 4.90 underway.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday was essentially another inside day compared to Tuesday, ranging exclusively under Wednesday’s other inside day.
Any other session would have considered this to be bearish, and closing at intraday lows would have been a compelling hold-short, especially for still not rallying out of the 2635.00 test.
But lower participation undermines that predictability. So, the late 13-point slide back to and through the 2631.00 open didn’t qualify for a hold-short. Any delay in recovering Monday makes a retest of the recent 2603.00 likelier.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW DUE TO THE HOLIDAY.
chaRTroom will re-open at 6:00 pm ET Sunday with Globex.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys has a track record for influencing price action. But any reaction to the pre-open report should be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Post-open Review… Nice try.
Post-open bounce still triggers bias-down.
Overnight ranging between the 2636.00-2645.00 bias-down parameters had broken lower within 30-60-90 minutes before the open. 
And not by a little, sliding quickly to retest Wednesday’s night’s low by 1 point down to 2626.00.
Its reaction greeted the open already testing a 2630.75 buy signal. Although it would have made a more credible bottom to first retest the overnight low, the first half-hour extended up to 2643.00. Nevertheless, RSIs diverged negatively into its retest, stopping 6 ticks short of even touching the 2645.00 bias-down signal.
This is a bias-down environment. Its bias-down target was already met, and not broken through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. But RSIs continue deteriorating, and the reaction down is now testing 2633.50.
The 2636.00 bias-down target is still support. Exiting the bias environment above it would normally suggest that sellers had lost traction. Today the bias environment exit is essentially the early close. Extending down under overnight lows would next target a retest of 2603.00.