Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Down for the duration.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Wednesday to 2658.00 and dipping immediately to 2651.00 was recovered to attack the 2667.00 overnight high. The bias-up environment extended through its exit to attack 2671.00, only touching Tuesday’s high. Up 39 points from the 2632.25 overnight low, and still only an “inside day,” which pre-holiday evaporation wouldn’t help to change. Instead, the afternoon ranged narrowly sideways at the afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window broke lower to retest the 2651.00 post-open low. Futures continued sliding to the 2647.75-2648.50 61.8% retracement between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s gap up, natural support.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wide, choppy ranging around Wednesday’s close had developed through midnight. Breaking lower into and out of Europe’s opens fell to what is Friday morning’s 2636.00 bias-down target. Its reaction consolidated back up to 2646.00 before breaking lower again to 2627.00 and ending Globex in a test of Tuesday’s 2632.50 lows. Thursday night ranged between 2634.00-2646.00, currently testing its lower-end.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
2654.00 and 2635.00 were the decline’s next lower targets. Their first tests were Tuesday morning, and reacting up had resolved back down into their retests. Having bounced back above them Wednesday, their retests today offer another opportunity to react up. Resolving down again would be likely also to resume and extend the decline, whether today or next week. Reacting up would be a little less likely to resume the decline next week, because the price action of today’s holiday-shortened session won’t be very predictive. Meanwhile, their retests need not react up post-open at all, and probably won’t if not reacting up very early.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2632.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2636.00 bias-down target by 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2640.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2645.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Black Friday usually applies only to retail sales. And retail sales usually siphon volatility from the market. But low participation only inhibits the market from trending — it doesn’t prevent it, and it makes trending more difficult to stop if started. Meanwhile, only one econ report is scheduled before the early close. It’s post-open, and reliably influential to price action.
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Early Close
1:15 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2659.75 | 2660.00 |
| …would target | 2669.25 | 2669.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2644.75 | 2645.00 |
| …would target | 2635.75 | 2636.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Rallying overnight up to 2667.00 was nonetheless contained entirely within Tuesday’s range. 
Wednesday’s session would go on to be an “inside day,” as well. Gapping up dipped immediately to within 2 ticks of the morning’s 2650.50 bias-up signal, then snapped back up to 2666.00. Its bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, but that didn’t prevent testing its renewed bias-up target up to 2671.25 as the morning bias environment began lapsing.
Not bad, from the earlier 2632.25 Globex low. Yet, all still an inside day. Lower lows through the close tested and held support at the 2647.75-2648.50 61.8% retracement between Tuesday’s close and Wednesday’s gap up, natural support.
The afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal didn’t trigger, but it did serve as the afternoon’s support to a narrowing range. The proxy window finally cratered, extending down through the position-squaring window to retest the open’s attack on 2650.50. All still an inside day.
There’s nothing predictive about Wednesday’s price action. Less so about Friday, which closes early and is surrounded by days off. The chaRTroom will remain open — have a Happy Thanksgiving…
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1425 sell signal was retested as resistance overnight and into Wednesday’s open, and still being tested through the session by an inside day which neither confirms nor invalidates the signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning attacking 1231.00, but essentially hovering under Monday’s 1228.00 high. The 1220.50 sell signal remains active.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning at 14.55 to test another “higher prior low” and gap. A break back under 14.32 is now needed to reverse the trend back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s fresh highs reacted down Wednesday morning to hover just under Monday’s 139-24 prior highs, without reversing momentum down or invalidating the upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s still too soon for any credible bottoming to develop when Tuesday’s plunge requires at least being probed to fresh lows. That didn’t prevent gapping up to retrace Tuesday’s late downleg from 54.30, back into Tuesday’s mid-day range, and then extending higher to test 55.85. But the inside day does not reverse momentum up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending Tuesday’s recovery overnight tested the gap back to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close, but had backed off already pre-open to avoid filling the gap intraday. An intraday gap fill remains likely, especially so long as 4.38 holds as support through the close.