Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Holding up, still.
Still testing yesterday’s highs.
This morning’s 2661.00 bias-up target had held 3 tests through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Fresh highs were still likely to test what would have been its 2668.75 renewed bias-up signal. Which the bias environment exit did, up to 2671.25.
Similar to Fridays, the morning’s bias was likely to persist through the noon hour, ahead of tomorrow’s illiquidity. Reacting down into the noon hour only attacked this afternoon’s 2662.00 bias-down signal before triggering no-bias. The window’s 2671.50 bias-up signal can be tested.
Back under 2662.00 would still be credible for reversing momentum down, especially when the bias environment begins lapsing. Otherwise, fresh highs would next target 2677.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 22, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It’s Thanksgiving, and U.S. markets are closed for the holiday. Globex closes early, and then re-opens normally.
Globex early close
1:15 PM ET
Globex open
6:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2671.25 | 2671.50 |
| …would target | 2677.50 | 2677.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2661.75 | 2662.00 |
| …would target | 2655.25 | 2655.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Holding up.
Not rejecting overnight bounce.
Rallying overnight from its initial dip to 2632.25 had recovered to attack 2660.00 through Europe’s opens. Its reaction down was recovered ahead of pre-open econ reports up to 2667.00. Still another reaction down attacked the 2650.50 bias-up signal as support post-open, which held through 10:15.
This is a bias-up environment. Its 2661.00 bias-up target has been probed three times post-open, most recently up to 2666.00. But it wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, so no higher highs is required.
That said, probing higher anyway is possible, up to 2668.75 if not also to test 2678.00. Like the pre-weekend Friday Factors, the morning’s bias signal can persist through the noon hour ahead of illiquidity. Again, neither is required, and back under 2656.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back down — while participation and volume evaporate ahead of the holiday.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Firmer.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night’s decline already had tested the decline’s next lower target at 2654.00 by 3 points, and greeted the open there. Bouncing 7 points resolved down to test the next lower target at 2635.00 by 2 points. Both were recovered quickly by fresh session highs testing 2668.00. It was retested by 3 points after an interim dip back down to pre-open lows. A same-day test and recovery of both of the next two lower targets would have at least robbed sellers of their traction. But the afternoon’s slide back down to the morning’s lows ended back under 2654.00, while the afternoon range was still utilizing 2635.00 as support.
Overnight action’s new info…
After initially dipping to attack the late-afternoon low down to 2632.25, price has trended up relentlessly. And by double-digits. It may sound like a rejection of sellers, by strong-handed buyers, but the bounce so far may as well be noise and not necessarily due to sponsorship. Ranging sideways since Europe’s opens has fluctuated choppily around 2654.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
116 ES points, 1,100 Dow points, all from Friday’s noon hour high to Tuesday afternoon’s retest of the morning’s lows. Is it done? NDX outperformed by not retesting its morning’s lows, and having been a primary catalyst for the decline, a Tech bottom would be helpful to ending the sell-off. Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness could also help, and it tends to step in today. None of which matters if the normal rubber band stretch has broken the band’s elasticity altogether. The overnight bounce is only testing 2654.00 resistance, but a morning rally could test 2678.00 resistance and still maintain the decline’s momentum.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2654.00 would be likely to trigger the 2650.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2648.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.