Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2649.50 | 2650.50 |
| …would target | 2651.00 | 2661.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2633.00 | 2634.00 |
| …would target | 2622.00 | 2623.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Is it over? At least, for now, has the 2-day 116-point drop found a low? That’s 1,100 Dow points, all from Friday’s noon hour high to Tuesday afternoon’s retest of the morning’s lows. NDX didn’t retest its morning’s lows, so could the Tech wrecks be done?
Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness tends to step in by Wednesday. Often, that follows a downleg to some degree that got rid of its selling pressure just before then. Did this year’s jumbo-sized drop break through the normal rubber band stretch, and break the band’s elasticity altogether?
Closing back above the decline’s next two lower targets at 2635.00 and 2654.00 would have at least robbed sellers of their traction. Both were tested Tuesday morning. Both were recovered before Tuesday’s noon hour. And both almost failed into Tuesday’s close. Both, almost, because 2654.00 wasn’t recovered, while the afternoon range was still utilizing 2635.00 as support.
Now, trying to rally would face resistance at 2678.00. Its immediate recovery Wednesday could isolate Tuesday’s session and allow a bigger bounce. But reversing the trend up must recover Monday afternoon’s 2703.50 high — it’s likely to hold any test through the close, unless gapping above it which isn’t likely.
Resuming the decline Wednesday would next target the 2603.00 prior low. A “V” bottom there would could bounce into the holiday, but would be doomed to failure. A more considered and extensive retest would probably hold, but could still resolve down.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back to the 2-week old high session’s close Monday resolved down overnight and gapped down Tuesday, back under Monday’s range, and through the 1.1425 sell signal. Closing lower Wednesday would confirm the trend is reversed down again.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still barely ranging flat-to-higher overnight finally tried breaking higher Tuesday morning to 1229.50. Its reaction down fell back to the 1220.50 sell signal, whose break would likely trend down to fresh lows.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight surged into Tuesday’s open to test 14.45 before plunging through the morning to 14.20. All of which suggests the corrective bounce limit has held its test, and a second lower close Wednesday would likely trend down ahead of the weekend.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh recovery highs overnight gapped up Tuesday to 140-04, then fluctuated flat-to-lower, filling the gap back down to Monday’s 139-24 close without reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s long-awaited retest of last Tuesday’s record intraday plunge was itself shallow and brief. Its optimism was bearish from a contrarian perspective, and proved out Tuesday by plunging again through 55.70 to fresh lows testing 52.75. Being another plunge, similar to last week’s, no recovery attempt will be credible without first retesting the plunge’s low.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s rally had stopped short of filling the gap back up to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close. Tuesday’s reaction down held a test of the 4.38 sell signal, keeping alive the higher attraction, but also making any subsequent dip highly likely to extend down sharply.
Mid-day Update… Last bite.
Morning recovery gets pushed back.
This morning’s 2633.75 low had tested the decline’s 2635.00 target, then reversed up through the decline’s 2654.00 prior target (also the opening print) to 2668.50. Quite a day, and that was only its first 90 minutes.
Reacting down to 2648.75 bounced to the noon hour’s fresh high at 2670.25, which reacted down even more deeply to 2643.25. Meanwhile, the afternoon’s bias-down triggered and its target was met.
Now one more bounce is testing the afternoon’s 2653.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Any higher would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced, unless the bias environment were exited above the 2666.00 bias-up signal.
Reversing up today depends greatly on the seasonal holiday bullishness influence appearing. Appearing, because pre-holiday selling pressures had depleted all available supply. If that can’t be converted to rally through the close, then the door remains open to resuming the decline.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 21, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s holiday makes Wednesday the week’s busiest for econ reports. Any noticeable reaction to the high-profile and influential pre-open Durable Goods report should be duplicated in reaction to either of the high-profile influential post-open reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
11:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET