Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2665.00 | 2666.00 |
| …would target | 2672.75 | 2673.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2652.00 | 2653.00 |
| …would target | 2644.75 | 2645.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… And one to grow on.
Next lower TWO targets met.
Market Tour had just finished noting there was nothing bullish about the 3-hour 2673.00-2681.50 range, 
when the drop resumed. Extending down to 2650.50 pre-open fulfilled the decline’s next lower target at 2654.00. The low printed at 10:15.
A post-open bounce up to 2661.50 resolved down sharply to 2633.75. And that fulfilled the decline’s next lower target at 2635.00. Reacting up targeted 2658.00, the room for noise in retracing the last downleg. Even that has extended higher to 2668.50.
The decline’s next two lower targets met, not only during the same session, but during the same window.
Closing back above a relevant level would suggest a durable bottom is forming. Two candidates are 2678.00 and 2688.00. But there’s no requirement for a bottom, let alone a recovery, especially if 2654.00 fails to hold a retest as support.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Digging a deeper hole.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s Globex high got between Friday’s 2744.75-2748.75 highs before reversing back down, and greeting Monday’s open at the 2729.00 earlier Globex low. The quasi Globex-flip setup didn’t exit the open any lower, which would have triggered the setup. But the morning trended down anyway to 2705.00. Perhaps that’s due more to the bearish WedEX’s aggressive stage of influence. Regardless, the afternoon didn’t exploit the WedEX’s influence having lapsed, and extended down to the bias environment’s 2681.00 low. A reverse / expanding triangle formed, and the proxy window briefly probed its 2698.00 resistance up to 2793.50 before closing back down within the triangle’s range.
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging into Europe’s opens had held Monday afternoon’s 2681.50-2693.50 lows. Lower lows after Europe’s opens broke down to 2673.50, where price has consolidated back up to 2681.50 for 3 hours. Now a very recent blip-down to 2673.00 has snapped back up to attack 2684.00, and then slapped back down to fresh lows testing 2672.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
If the Globex-flip influenced yesterday morning’s decline, then no afternoon reversal keeps alive its influence through this morning, too. At least, we’ll give that a benefit of the doubt so long as no reversal signal is triggered. Isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight would form a reversal setup, or triggering bias-up. Otherwise, the decline’s next lower major objective is 2654.25. All of which puts last Thursday’s potential bottoming pattern in desperate need of confirmation by closing above a prior high, starting with recovering 2706.75 to start signaling momentum reversing up — a little seasonal bullishness this afternoon could do the trick, but look out below if not.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2686.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2683.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2682.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2698.25 | 2699.50 |
| …would target | 2705.50 | 2706.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2682.50 | 2683.50 |
| …would target | 2676.50 | 2676.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open was greeted back down at the 2729.00 earlier Globex low, after having probed most of Friday’s prior highs. Extending down through the open would have been bearish. The open held up, but didn’t reject the test. The morning resolved down anyway. The WedEX’s nominally bearish influence from Friday was followed by an aggressive morning-long decline into the 2686.50 noon hour low.
A reverse / expanding triangle began forming through the afternoon bias environment, its resistance tested twice at 2698.00, and its third low being 2691.50. No traction was gained, and the proxy window’s attempt to reverse up barely held before reversing back down to the noon hour’s 2686.50 low.
To the extent that the Globex-flip is influential, failing to recover Monday morning’s decline suggests it will extend down through Tuesday morning, too. The next lower major objective is 2754.25. Otherwise, back above 2706.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, last Thursday’s potential bottoming pattern is desperately in need of further confirmation by closing above a prior high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.