Posts by Rod David
Trapped shorts, or else trap door.
Trying to recover the post-open drop.
The opening drop extended lower despite not renewing the bias-down signal under its 2089.25 bias-down target by 10:15. Support was tested at 2082.00, which was the shallower speculative retracement of Wednesday”s opening sentiment. Signs of impatient sellers had made a bounce there likely.
Its 9-point bounce probed above the 2089.25 bias-down target. Exiting the bias environment above it would have confirmed this morning”s sellers are weak-handed.
That”s not happening.
Entering the noon hour under this morning”s 2089.25 bias-down target doesn”t confirm this morning”s selling pressure is weak-handed. It leaves the door open to extending the drop this afternoon. That would target the gap back to Tuesday”s 2072.00 close, and potentially another 10 points lower.
Instead of extending down, the noon hour could still probe fresh post-open highs up to this morning”s 2095.75 bias-down signal. That would still allow the afternoon to rally, and to probe above yesterday”s 2106.75 high. But the burden of proof is on buyers.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2101.50 | 2092.50 |
| …would target | 2107.25 | 2098.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2089.50 | 2080.75 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2072.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox is today due to
Livestox is today due to travel. Join us at the following link at 12:15 to review the market, Gold, Crude Oil and individual stocks. Your stock chart analysis requests will be reviewed, too.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Post-open review… But, wait, there’s more.
Overnight drop resumes, extends through the open.
S&Ps were trading in lockstep with Europe. Firming to 2100.00 into Europe”s firm opens was rejected to fresh lows at 2095.00 when Europe”s opens stumbled. Their stumbles were recovered, so S&Ps recovered, too, to 2101.00.
But that recovery melted away, to fresh lows testing 2092.00. The open”s 2-point bounce stopped short of triggering a 2094.25 buy signal, and extended down to test 2087.00. Its 6-point reaction up has resolved down 7 points to 2083.50.
The 2089.25 bias-down target wasn”t yet broken by 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. This is still a bias-down environment that need not recover from extending down. But delaying the extension down until after 10:15 is often weak-handed sponsorship, and recovered.
Back above 2088.25 would start to signal the extension”s sponsorship is weak-handed, and that it has been absorbed to reverse back up. Otherwise, the next lower attraction is Wednesday”s 2079.50 opening print.
S&Ps tied recovery hopes to
S&Ps tied recovery hopes to the wrong horse. Europe”s opening dips had recovered into positive territory, taking S&Ps above levels where Europe had opened. Then Europe”s recoveries fizzled, and S&Ps reversed down to fresh lows, too. Clearly, there is one story moving markets, and it”s moving all of them similarly. A lot of surprises can suddenly appear in such a narrow range of vision. Would a favorable Greece headline be such a surprise? No further Greece headline might be favorable enough to avoid triggering bias-down. Here”s the recording of the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfpcftv
P.S. Don”t forget about tomorrow”s Saturday Review at 9:30am ET… details to follow.