Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Good to the last drift.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s opening surge to 2106.75 had extended the pre-open firming form a narrow 5-point 2095.00-2100.00 overnight range. That narrow range had begun late Wednesday morning, after spiking up on anti-Grexit headlines. Another headline countered the 24-hour old bullish news, driving price back under 2100.00. The balance of the session ranged sideways narrowly again.
Overnight action”s new info…
A gradual drift to fresh overnight lows greeted Europe”s opens by firming to 2100.00, but resuming the drift touched 2095.00. Reacting up again pierced 2101.00, where Europe”s opens were greeted.
If, then…
A series of lower highs and lower lows since yesterday”s opening high has dropped 12 points. The slope has been shallow, so a lot of selling pressure has been expended without probing a prior low. This is not a buy signal, but it is a basis for expecting a buy signal to be very productive, very quickly. Similarly, nothing prevents extending down further — but a sell signal is less likely to be productive since so much selling pressure was expended already. Regardless, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2094.25 would be likely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2102.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2106.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.00 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2113.25 | 2105.00 |
| …would target | 2120.00 | 2111.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2104.00 | 2095.75 |
| …would target | 2097.50 | 2089.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
REMINDER — I”m unavailable for
REMINDER — I”m unavailable for the balance of the day. Links to the chaRTroom are below (the XP-Friendly link is new). We had an early Market “Wrap,” and its recording is linked below. This is my last planned intraday absence, so thanks again to all for indulging me!
chaRTroom links AFTER 1:30 are:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/765-487-960
xp-UNfriendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
pre-close Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrtmkxz
Daily Spot… Gold gettiing heavy, bonds getting strong.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday”s fresh high close was not above last week”s intraday high, disqualifying it from fulfilling the outstanding third higher close. Thursday”s open gapped down and extended lower. Back above 1.1285 would signal the rally had resumed.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1185.30 at Wednesday”s close — instead of closing under it — made 1175.00 the new signal that momentum has reversed down. But Thursday”s plunge testing 1175.00 does at least confirm the recent bounce had failed. Closing under it would next target 1158.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s reaction down to a fresh low tried recovering to unchanged, but might not have prevented sellers from gaining traction. Nevertheless, there remains potential for bouncing back into the 16.15-16.35 range.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s reaction to 8:30”s econ reports surged to test 149-08 resistance. closing above it would signal a bigger rally underway. A pullback needed to hold 148-23 as support, which it did, before recovering to fresh session highs.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday”s surge above 60.80 didn”t resume Thursday morning, instead testing the 60.30 pullback limit which must hold through the close to maintain the rally”s momentum.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength didn”t equate to resuming the rally, and there was no negative knee-jerk reaction to absorb. But the probe above 2.90 did react back down to test Wednesday”s 2.82 low. Regardless, Wednesday”s third higher close wasn”t rejected, so the trend remains intact.
Keeping a limit on pessimism?
REMINDER: I”m away from the screens for the balance of the session after setting this afternoon”s bias signal. We”ll have an early Market “Wrap” at 1:20pm ET.
chaRTroom links after 1:30 are:
o Win XP-Friendly entry || o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
IMF”s disagreement with Greece has had only the one reaction down. The balance of the morning ranged narrowly into the noon hour. Despite sellers not gaining traction, exiting the bias environment under its 2104.00 bias-up target makes resuming the rally today difficult.
Difficult, but not impossible.
No price improvement since before the 10:15 bias signal has already discounted the attraction to 2110.00. But it can be put back into play by triggering this afternoon”s 2104.25 bias-up signal.
Exiting the bias environment under 2104.00 didn”t equate to being a sell signal. But that doesn”t preclude price drifting down to the 2096.50 bias-down signal as support.