Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2098.75 |
| …would target | 2112.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2102.50 | 2093.75 |
| …would target | 2096.25 | 2087.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, EXCEEDED BIAS-UP TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
As suspected, the late-morning spike
As suspected, the late-morning spike up on Greece headlines extended the rally ahead of itself. It seems impressive that the final hour didn”t correct any of the spike, but that runs the risk of “ineffectual optimism.” Especially since buyers gained no traction for their efforts (both exiting the bias environment and entering the final hour within the noon hour”s range).
Gapping up Thursday would be less than half the battle to avoiding a delayed corrective dip — maintaining the gap, and extending it, will also matter. Nothing will marginalize sellers at this stage of the pattern, so early strength could stretch the rubber band before it snaps back down hard.
Meanwhile, Wednesday”s breakout will be looking for a second consecutive higher close to confirm that new highs are now in-play. The early Market Wrap is entirely relevant since later price action ranged narrowly:
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Overnight links to view chaRTroom action:
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Programming note: As with last Thursday, I am available only through the noon hour and the afternoon bias signal. The chaRTroom should be available (an ISP outage prevented that on Wednesday). This is not a recurring thing, so thanks to all for your indulgence!
As you know from my
As you know from my prior post, I”m unavailable during the last hour today. Unfortunately, I”ve just learned that the chaRTroom will be unavailable, too. THERE WILL BE NO CHARTS BROADCAST UNTIL THIS EVENING. I”m very sorry for the inconvenience this may cause.
Daily Spot… Gold and bonds extended.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fresh highs Tuesday night at 1.1388 were only attacked Wednesday morning, but last week”s highs were clearly pierced, in position to fulfill the eventual third higher close that remains outstandingg.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1175.00 bounce limit Tuesday didn”t prevent gapping up Wednesday to the next higher bounce limit at 1191.70. This one is more critical to hold, as closing any higher would take the 1158.50 objective out of range. Back under 1185.30 would signal that the bounce had ended.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying only enough Wednesday morning to pierce the lower-end of the 16.15-16.35 target range. That was retraced to unchanged around 15.95, still leaving no new signal.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the next lower objective at 148-08/148-10 to within 1 tick Tuesday was only one reason why a bottom had not formed. Wednesday”s gap under it tested the next lower support at 147-18. Back above 148-11 would target 149-08 without yet reversing the trend up. The 30-year auction is on Thursday, and the 10-year went off well on Wednesday.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s gap up above Friday”s high had invalidated the 58.75 sell signal. Extending higher overnight gapped up sharply Wednesday to test 61.80. Its reaction tested 60.80 as support, whose recovery signals 63.15 in-play, so long as pullbacks then hold 60.30.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight to 2.92 gapped up Wednesday, dipped a dime to probe negative territory, then recovered back toward the highs. Ending the day with a third higher close fulfills the minimum requirement and leaves no unfinished business above. But greeting Thursday”s EIA report after three consecutive higher closes is a position of strength. Leaving that minimum requirement outstanding would have been a slightly better position of strength, having that attraction above.
Pre-close view… Hovering high.
Greece news reaction hasn”t extended, and hasn”t reversed.
PROGRAMMING NOTE:
I am unavailable during today”s final hour. We”ll do Market Wrap early at 2:55pm ET. Its recording link will be sent tonight.
Since spiking up this morning, price has only ranged narrowly sideways. This afternoon”s 2106.50 bias-up signal was touched several times but never pierced. Its last reaction dipped to test 2103.00.
That was recovered to test the 2106.50 bias-up signal, during the no-bias environment — and the no-bias signal is intended to define the no-bias environment”s upper-end until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. But just coming to within 10-15 minutes of 2:30 now allows trending to start at any time.
By the way, the afternoon”s bias environment pierced the noon hour”s high by a couple of ticks. The noon hour”s high had not pierced the morning”s bias environment high. If today is still behaving like a “session-long rally,” then the final hour should trend to new session highs.
Regardless of how strong it is, Wednesday”s rally is just one day. A second consecutive higher close is needed for confirmation that new highs are back in-play. Closing today above 2111.75 and 2117.00 would be increasingly likely to extend higher Thursday.