Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jun 11 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday”s calendar is busy, and two of its three pre-open reports are high-profile. But the only item with a reliable track record for influencing price action is the lunch hour”s 30-year auction. Volatility may be inhibited before it, if not pessimistic. A successful auction would likely trigger a relief rally.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
A deal?
Renewed target is probed even higher.
The 2098.50 / 2099.75 renewed bias-up targets were met, and held. Price was hovering there when favorable Greece news triggered a spike up to 2108.00. That happened
to fulfill the 2104.25 unfinished business left outstanding last week.
Overbought RSIs at the 2108.00 high require its retest. But the balance off the session is vulnerable to a dip or to flat-to-lower ranging — none of which is a signal that momentum is reversing down.
It”s tempting to view today as a “session-long rally” for having exploited its gap up above yesterday afternoon”s high. But yesterday”s close didn”t comply with the setup. Still, we”re gong to monitor the timing windows for one that doesn”t probe the prior timing window”s high.
– probing higher through each until the final timing window would make that last one vulnerable to trending back down
– not probing higher during the noon hour or afternoon timing windows would be vulnerable to trend higher into the close
So, an afternoon downleg would be possible, but not currently indicated.
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2106.50 |
| …would target | 2112.75 | 2111.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2099.50 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2094.50 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Renewed.
Bias-up target met, and exceeded.
After yesterday”s buyers had failed to gain traction for their efforts, rallying this morning required essentially gapping up and extending. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility above 2088.25 would be likely to trigger the 2086.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
In fact, the open”s gap up extended quickly through 2088.25. The 2093.25 bias-up target was met to within 1 tick at 9:45.
And the bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Although not required to be met, 2098.50 and 2099.75 are in-play.
Surviving the open without reversing down in this pattern does suggest that sellers are marginalized for the day. This is regardless of extending so high and so quickly.
Overbought RSIs at the high make its retest likely. Timing makes fresh highs this morning likely to extend higher. Dipping is possible, if not also likely. But there is room down to 2091.00 before suggesting the dip is part of a reversal down.
2085 was touched by the
2085 was touched by the pre-open pullback from the 2089.25 overnight high. That still avoided yesterday”s high by 1 tick. This is a lot of optimism, and a rally needs optimism, but not quickly attracting more optimists would mean the stretched rubber band can snap back that much harder. Buyers get a benefit of the doubt, but also less latitude in their pullback. Details were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvpjsr