Posts by Rod David
Friday”s 2091.75 close was barely
Friday”s 2091.75 close was barely overlapping Thursday”s lows. Thursday”s close was barely overlapping last Tuesday”s 2096 prior low. Declines that develop this way can be productive, but they”re often not durable. We”ll soon find out which one this is.
A retest of oversold RSIs at Friday”s 2083.50 low is in-play. So is 2081.25, with room down to 2078.75. Testing them Sunday night or Monday morning would be extreme sentiment. And greeting the new week with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Neutralizing these lower objectives without reacting up would be very bearish.
Meanwhile, unfinished business is outstanding above at 2104.25. Extending through it first would be capable of extending higher, although not as reliably while unfinished business remains outstanding below.
Here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwzycty
(Reminder: There”s no Saturday Review this weekend. Enjoy!)
Daily Spot… Euro’s unfinished business above.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday”s flat close around 1.1250 did not fulfill the required eventual third higher close that was put into play by the prior two sessions. That unfinished business outstanding did not prevent plunging to 1.1050 in reaction to Friday”s Employment Situation report. This is where the eventual third higher close requirement can be most relevant, by knowing Friday”s reaction down is likely only temporary. Back above 1.1210 would signal the rally having resumed. Extending first under 1.1070 would undermine the near-term recovery potential.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another drop to fresh lows at 1162.00 keeps alive at least the 1158.50 target, if not also the low 1150”s. Being a new trend extreme on a Friday, rallying immediately Monday would likely fail. By the same token, extending down immediately to fulfill the target could be very durable.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing under the 16.35 target area”s lower-end Friday, after having held its test Thursday, does put into play a retest of prior lows under 15.25. Closing above 16.35 Monday would invalidate the Friday”s break.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s reaction to the Employment Situation report triggered a plunge that quickly fulfilled the likely retest of Wednesday”s 149-09 low. The spike down to 149-00 was recovered to 15-20, but the afternoon drifted back down toward Wednesday”s low.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending Thursday”s 58.75 sell signal into fresh lows overnight testing 56.85 was retraced on bullish OPEC news. Heightened prospects of a rate hike inhibited much more than just ranging narrowly around unchanged.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday”s ineffectual pessimism is more bullish than bearish. Gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory could have extended down into per-weekend illiquidity. not trending down is not a buy signal, but it does make any initial strength Monday credible for extending higher.
Friday Factors finding their way in.
This morning”s recovery attacked 2100.00, well above the 2098.50 bias-down signal. That was after 10:15, when 2098.50 had been recovered already to avoid triggering. Its consequence — putting into play tests of both bias-up parameters — was confirmed by probing higher after 10:15.
So, reacting down to 2088.25 hasn”t changed whether this morning”s 2104.25 bias-up target is “unfinished business above.” That unfinished business above helped to avoid triggering this afternoon”s 2087.75 bias-down signal. Its attack reacted up to 2094.50.
Friday Factors also helped avoid breaking lower. Regardless of this morning”s frenzy, the weekend now approaches and participation is evaporating. Trending is difficult to generate without sponsorship.
Trending is difficult to stop without sponsorship, too. So, don”t be dismissive of downtrending, which can still extend to retest this morning”s oversold RSIs and down to 2081.25. Otherwise, the balance of the session can gravitate back up toward 2104.25.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jun 8 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s econ reports have no track record of influencing price action.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.25 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2106.00 | 2104.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2189.50 | 2087.75 |
| …would target | 2183.00 | 2081.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.