Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Still tough to start trending down.
Weekend Wall of Worry.
Opening above 2096.00 wasn”t just the likeliest path higher. It was probably also the only path higher. At least, the only path to avoid fresh lows.
So, the open”s attack on 2096.00 was reversed down sharply to the 2086.25 pre-open low, and then to 2083.50.
That lower low also tested this morning”s 2084.00 bias-down target. And held it. A bounce limit was violated above 2088.25, and the 2089.25 bias-down signal was recovered. Its recovery tested 2096.00.
2096.00”s recovery is no longer the only path higher. Having tested both bias-down parameters, not triggering the 2089.25 bias-down signal has put into play tests of both bias-up parameters, 2098.50 and 2104.25.
Back under the 2089.25 bias-down signal at 10:30 would invalidate its 10:15 recovery. And oversold RSIs at the 2083.50 low would come back into play. Otherwise, sellers may be marginalized for the day.
This morning”s Employment Situation report
This morning”s Employment Situation report was greeted from around 2096. It triggered a spike down to 2086.25, which fulfilled yesterday afternoon”s 2089.25 bias-down target. Its reaction back to 2096 was retraced to 2089.26, and the range has narrowed into the open.
Opening above 2096 is the most reliable path higher. Recovering a post-open dip would be credible, but not at all easy. Triggering the 2098.50 bias-up signal would be credible, regardless.
I”m not looking for a melt-down if the trend extends down today. The 2078.75-2081.25 is still capable of launching a rally to new highs. But that new high detour becomes unlikely if 2078.75-2081.25 fails to hold.
Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkvzjt
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2100.25 | 2098.50 |
| …would target | 2106.00 | 2104.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2091.00 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2085.75 | 2084.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The First Trade… Jobs hunting.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Dropping Wednesday night to test 2100.00 was recovered to attack 2108.00 before Thursday”s open. Dropping aggressively held the overnight low and recovered to attack 2112.00. That bounce also failed, but this time dropping through the noon hour to 2091.25. Anxiousness ahead of the noon hour ended the drop, but a bounce to 2097.00 held the 2091.25 low before the close. The cash session close barely recovered to hold last Tuesday”s 2096.00 low.
Overnight action”s new info…
Last-minute action had surged into the futures close to 2099.25. Narrow ranging held 2097.00 at Europe”s opens, which triggered a surge to attack 2103.00. Consolidating back down to 2097.00 has broken sharply, now bouncing from a touch of yesterday”s 2091.25 low.
If, then…
Trending yesterday was unlikely ahead of the Employment Situation report. Now trending isn”t so inhibited. And this being a Friday, the morning”s bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. So, before the bias is triggered, may be the last opportunity to avoid falling over a little ledge, let alone a last opportunity for new highs anytime soon. And before either opportunity, there is this morning”s Employment Situation report. Recovering through the open from a negative reaction could trend up sharply into the weekend. Otherwise, the next lower objective at 2078.75-2081.25 will be in-play.
First Trade…
No preliminary levels are suggested before Employment Situation reports.
I”m away from the screens
I”m away from the screens for the rest of the day, so we had an early Market “Wrap.” Its recording is below… Meanwhile, last Tuesday”s 2096 low is being retested again, this time intraday. Although it”s a bias-down environment, leaving the target outstanding won”t make tomorrow”s price action any likelier to test it. And an afternoon short-squeeze remains possible as sponsorship usually isn”t strong enough to trend the afternoon before the Employment report.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjrryc