Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 3 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Look at all of those asterisks*. That”s a lot of influential items, and a lot of doubly-influential items. ADP is reliable for triggering a reaction, and it allows us to fine-tune sentiment expectations leading into Friday”s payrolls report. The two afternoon FOMC speakers follow the Beige Book release, so late-morning to afternoon price action might be subdued.
(* “Asterisk” refers to a star-shaped character which directs the reader to search lower in the document for clarification or elaboration)
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
**ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
**Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
2:15 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
4:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2112.00 | 2110.00 |
| …would target | 2117.00 | 2115.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2103.50 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2096.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… So, you’re saying there’s a chance.
Bias-down parameters almost rejected. Which means, not.
The 2104.25 open soon resolved down to probe a couple of times under 2097.00. The probes stopped optimistically short of touching last week”s 2096.00 low — which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
We can dismiss those impatient buyers, since the overnight low had probed much deeper. And not exceeding the bias–down target through 10:15 avoided renewing the bias-down signal.
It”s not an optimal low. But that didn”t prevent a buy signal at 2101.50 from extending to 2106.50. Of course, 2106.50 is this morning”s bias-down signal, and it wasn”t recovered through 10:15 or 10:30.
So, this is a bias-down environment. That hasn”t prevented extending higher to 2108.75. But it is a “bias-down rally,” which must be retraced to at least 2106.50 when the bias environment begins lapsing.*
(*A dip is retracing now to 2106.50, but this is too early to complete its retracement.)
Back under 2104.25 would start to signal the recovery potential was done. Bottoming optimistically short of touching last week”s low, and rallying impatiently — not to mention bias-down rallying — all would combine to make the decline likely to extend. Otherwise, successfully navigating the bias environment”s exit still has that narrow window to become a new rally leg to new highs.
CORRECTION: The wrong link was
CORRECTION: The wrong link was sent previously. I apologize for any confusion that caused. Following is the correct pre-market Tour recording link:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxfxhx
The overnight plunge”s recovery from
The overnight plunge”s recovery from 2094 to 2110 was retraced to within 1 tick of this morning”s 2098.50 bias-down target. A bounce to 2106.50 has reacted down to threaten the bias-down target again. There”s not much time to absorb a post-open dip if the session intends on avoiding a deeper drop through the overnight lows. We discussed why, and reviewed preliminary numbers, during the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsmbmrz